MLB Futures Best Bets: World Series Winner

Vaughn Dalzell takes a look at a futures prop and some team’s odds in the World Series market that are showing significant value entering September.

World Series - League of Winning Team

National League (-120) vs. American League (+100)

Let’s take a look at a futures market on BetMGM that focuses on which league will win the World Series.

The National League has the two favored teams to win the World Series at BetMGM, the Atlanta Braves (+300) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (+400). The next closest NL team in terms of odds are the Philadelphia Phillies (+1800), then Milwaukee Brewers (+2500), so it’s safe to say it’s a two-team race in the NL.

The American League favorite is the Houston Astros (+700) with the Baltimore Orioles (+900), Seattle Mariners (+1000), Tampa Bay Rays (+1100), and Texas Rangers (+1100) all bunched behind.

The Astros and Dodgers have two of the top 10 easiest remaining strengths of schedules during September. Atlanta is 16th, while the rest of the AL and NL field is playing the 13th-toughest schedule or worse.

It certainly seems like and has been building up to a three-team race between the Astros, Braves, and Dodgers as these squads have solidified themselves as the top-tier of baseball.

For that second tier, it’s certainly a plethora of AL teams like the Orioles, Rays, Rangers, Mariners, and Blue Jays that all have a chance, but picking one team out of that bunch is like picking the number that I am thinking of in my head between 1-10.

It was 7. It’s always 7. Anyway, when breaking down more factors into which teams can win the World Series, we have to consider history, pitching, hitting, and peaks of the season.

The Astros have gone to the World Series in four of the past six seasons, the Dodgers appeared in three of the last six, while the Braves, Rays, and Phillies all made one World Series in that span.

As for the other teams in the postseason hunt, here are the most recent years each squad made the World Series with their odds to win the 2023 World Series.

Chicago Cubs, 2016 (+4000)

Texas Rangers, 2011 (+2500)

San Francisco Giants, 2014 (+5000)

Miami Marlins, 2003 (+15000)

Arizona Diamondbacks, 2001 (+8000)

Toronto Blue Jays, 1993 (+2500)

Minnesota Twins, 1991 (+2500)

Cincinnati Reds, 1990 (+10000)

Baltimore Orioles, 1983 (+900)

Milwaukee Brewers, 1982 (+2500)

Seattle Mariners, never (+1000)

We’re currently living in an era where teams can dominate over spans because of payroll, free agency, waivers, and trade rules. I have no doubt that one or two of the three following teams, the Astros, Dodgers, or Braves will be playing in the World Series this season.

Teams like the Marlins, Giants, Cubs, and Rangers have been to the World Series over the past 20 years but have spent that time scraping back to the postseason. None of those four should be considered to win it all, nor should much of the field outside my big three.

My favorite pick to win this year’s World Series is the Braves, then the Dodgers. Atlanta has pitching, hitting, and the experience from their 2021 championship team still there with added and upgraded pieces. The Braves’ lineup is the best in baseball if you ask me, but the Dodgers are not far behind.

Los Angeles has more experience than the Braves in terms of playing in the postseason, but the pitching for the Dodgers is not as deadly, and the same can be said for the Houston Astros compared to the Braves.

Atlanta (90-45) is 10-1 in the last 11 games and separating itself from the rest of the league for the best record (+6.0 games up), which is held by Baltimore (84-51).

Ronald Acuna is back to being the favorite in the MVP race (-185) after smacking a 454-foot homer against the Dodgers, while Spencer Strider is gaining ground in the NL CY Young race (+440) with a win over L.A. in that same series and Matt Olson leads the MLB in homers (-125) and should separate himself from Shohei Ohtani in that race.

I have bets on all three of those things with Acuna at +400 to win MVP, Strider at +850 for CY Young and Olson at +350 to lead the MLB in homers.

Now, I am rolling with the National League to win the World Series at -120 odds because two of my three picks are in the NL and my main bet is the Braves at +300 to win the World Series.

Pick: National League to win the World Series (2.5u), Braves to win World Series (0.5u)

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