Betting Baseball: The AL Cy Young Market

Starting pitchers this season in the American League have shown moments of brilliance but nary a one has established himself as worthy of assuming the title of Cy Young favorite let alone earning the actual award.

The current board lists Yankee ace Gerrit Cole (+160), Tampa’s Shane McClanahan (+500), and Houston’s Frambler Valdez (+500) as the three favorites. Each, however, has his fair share of warts. None of the three has been consistently dominant and none of the three is clearly deserving of the award. None of the favorites brings the “wow” every time he takes the hill.

Thus, are we settling for a winner or is there a pitcher with a lesser name further down the odds board worth a look? The answer according to NBC’s Lead Betting Analyst Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) is to look further down the board for the pitcher who should be in serious consideration for the award. He closes games for the Baltimore Orioles.

“There is only one name on this board (AL Cy Young) at the moment and that is the Mountain, Felix Bautista at 100/1. In the American League of the guys who have pitched 40 innings or more here’s where he ranks: first in ERA, first in WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), first in K rate, first in FIP (fielding independent pitching). He is an absolute monster and here’s the thing I think really separates Felix from the other guys - win probability added - how your performance affects the odds of your team winning an individual game. He’s added 3.7 wins to Baltimore’s win probability. No other pitcher is higher than 2.7. Basically, what that means is that he is succeeding in the highest leverage moment.”

Can a dominant closer win the Cy Young? It is rare which helps explain why Bautista’s odds remain inflated. Eric Gagne was the last closer to win the award. The Dodgers’ reliever earned the award in 2003 when he finished the season with 67 appearances, 55 saves, a 1.20 ERA and a 0.69WHIP.

Felix Bautista’s numbers are comparable if not slightly better at this point in the season. In 45 appearances, the right-handed flame-thrower has 96 strikeouts (18 per 9 innings), a 0.92ERA (nearly two runs better than the current favorites in the race), a WHIP of 0.86 (1 among CY Young contenders), and 28 saves (T-1 in the AL).

Croucher believes voters must not accept the mediocrity that exists among the American League starting pitchers this season. The award is not about being really good. It is about being consistently dominant.

“I mean, are we really going to reward Gerrit Cole for the fifth best season of his career? His strikeouts are down. His walks are up. His other line numbers aren’t that great. Valdez is perfectly fine. He’s a solid pitcher but not as good as he was last year. If he (Bautista) keeps this up on this team, that’s amazing. The best story in baseball so far this year. The Orioles have the best record in the American League and it’s because of their bullpen. It’s because of Felix Bautista.”

The New York Yankees (@Yankees) are in Baltimore for a weekend series against the Orioles (@Orioles) at Camden Yards. Gerrit Cole is expected to start Friday. Bautista will be expected to close for Baltimore. Should the Orioles take Friday’s opener – meaning a less than dominant start from Cole and more than likely a league-leading 29 save for Bautista – it will be game on and the odds for Bautista will drop substantially.

Enjoy the series and enjoy the sweat.