Preakness fair odds: Scratch makes 1 horse the new play

Every part of me hates that First Mission scratched from the Preakness.

Except the part that's going to bet this race.

Whereas before I struggled to identify any potential value among the obvious logical contenders – Kentucky Derby winner Mage and new shooters National Treasure and First Mission – now the value is clear.

Mage will be odds-on and National Treasure is the play as a front-end threat. National Treasure already was a threat in that regard even before the scratch of First Mission, of course, but now he has one less foe that figures to be a presence before the quarter pole. Chase the Chaos, Red Route One, Perform and Blazing Sevens all figure to be behind Mage on the far turn.

Does this mean Mage can't win? Of course not. He's still the most likely winner. By far, even, but he will be odds-on now, and that's just not a bet I can make on an even-money proposition (i.e., I think Mage wins this race 50 percent of the time). 

With the seven-horse field, I don't see any of the other five alternatives being the right price either. From a win bet standpoint, National Treasure is the most likely value.

As for the gimmicks, I think there is still a case to be made that if the tank is empty on Mage then betting 1, 5, 6, 7 variously in verticals make some sense. This is unlikely, but in thinking of how the race will be bet, this scenario is likely overlaid in the markets.