Betting Stuff: QBs with something to prove, Schiano, and my favorite Big Ten win totals in 2024
The 2024 Big Ten football schedule has me thinking about the failed European Super League. When the top football clubs in the world tried to form a cash cow and subvert the Champions League, fans rose up en masse to block the idea from becoming reality. In most instances, fans were revolted. But I was always left with the impression that, had it actually gotten off the ground, the endeavor would have been too big to fail.
People would have watched. Real Madrid against Manchester United with regularity? Yeah, people would have watched. And maybe some of the folks who were initially disgusted with the idea might have eventually changed their tune. Especially so if that kind of quality was on their television every week.
To that end, have you looked at the 2024 Big Ten schedule?
USC plays Michigan on Sept. 21. We get a national championship rematch on Oct. 5, the same day Iowa plays Ohio State and UCLA plays Penn State. The following weekend, Ohio State plays at Oregon and USC hosts Penn State. On Nov. 2, the Big Ten slate features Oregon-Michigan, Ohio State-Penn State, and USC-Washington. Two weeks after that, the Calibraska movement is officially reborn. Rivalry Week is simply absurd.
There are reasons to be frustrated with the latest period of conference realignment. Especially for those who support teams left on the outside looking in.
But we’re still going to watch.
FOX is going to do NUMBERS. Disney will, too, with the SEC adding Texas and Oklahoma and the conference making the Worldwide Leader its exclusive home.
With the creation of college football’s equivalent Super League(s), expectations need to be altered a bit. Teams that would normally roll through a season with 10 wins might struggle to hit nine. The Indiana-based schools are already nursing a migraine.
At FanDuel, Oregon’s win total was set at 10.5. As someone who closely watched every single game the Ducks played last season, I’m a big believer that Dan Lanning has a title-contending team in Year 3. But the Ducks also play Ohio State, Michigan on the road, Wisconsin on the road, and a Washington team that has won three straight in the series.
For the incoming teams, consider the challenge. Oregon will play Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington — all former Pac-12 foes — in the upcoming season. The other nine opponents on the schedule are new. From Lanning’s perspective, the Ducks will play nine nonconference games in 2024.
The coaching staff has to gameplan for teams it doesn’t know. There’s no recent history to lean back on, no film that’ll look familiar. Yes, the Ducks beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2021, but the two teams on the field that day are vastly different now. Even the “easy” games will carry new challenges. How will the Ducks fare on some of these road trips when every single part of the operation will be unfamiliar?
We’ll see.
This Oregon team won 12 games a year ago, returns elite talent all over the field, returns both coordinators, and added one of the country’s most experienced quarterbacks who also happens to be a seamless fit within the offense. Can that team, in a vacuum, go 11-1? Absolutely.
I just think the Big Ten is going to be wild in 2024. Which makes trying to predict the league that much more entertaining. So, with that, here are my favorite bets right now.
Rutgers — Over 6.5 wins (+128 at FanDuel)
The 2023 season saw Rutgers produce its best year since 2014. The Scarlet Knights went 7-6 and won a bowl game, beating Miami in the Pinstripe Bowl. Yes, there was a four-game losing streak going into the bowl game, but that won’t spook me from backing Greg Schiano’s bunch in 2024.
Remember, Schiano’s first stint at Rutgers was slow to get off the ground at first as well. It took four years of losing records before the Scarlet Knights broke through and won seven games in Year 5. He laid the groundwork, built a foundation for what he wanted the program to be about. The following year, Rutgers won 11 games. Then it had at least eight wins in four of the next five years.
That’s not to say RU is going to break out for double-digit wins in 2024, but it might very well be the biggest immediate beneficiary of the dissolution of divisions in the conference. Last fall, it had crossover games on the road against Wisconsin and Iowa in addition to games against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. The 2024 slate is much friendlier.
Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan are all off the schedule. The five road games are against Virginia Tech, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, and Michigan State.
In the same way last year’s schedule afforded an opportunity for a hot start (Rutgers went 6-2 in its first eight games), the 2024 slate offers a chance to build some momentum. Virginia Tech off a bye doesn’t scare me. Washington, which will be playing its first road game of the year and will have to fly to the opposite coast to do so, doesn’t scare me either.
Rutgers could actually be favored in half its games. Using SP+ to craft early point spreads produces two other games where Rutgers would be less than a field goal underdog.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Rutgers has the eighth-highest percentage of returning production in the nation. (Things can obviously change once the spring transfer window passes.) That includes the sixth-best percentage of returning production on defense, where RU made its mark last fall.
Rutgers gave up just 21 points a game last fall, its fewest since the 2012 season when the team was co-Big East champions. Mohamed Toure returns after posting 9.5 tackles for loss last year. He’s joined by safety Flip Dixon as well as a pair of edge rushers in Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey who combined to produce 62 quarterback pressures last season. The Big Ten’s leading rusher last fall, Kyle Monangai, also returns. He had 1,262 yards at 5.2 a carry.
The obvious question is at quarterback. Gavin Wimsatt threw nine touchdowns against eight picks last season. He completed just 48% of his passes and averaged only 6 yards per throw. Schiano and the coaching staff need to see improvement there; the offense only averaged 23 points. But Wimsatt has also started 18 consecutive games and will be pushed this spring by Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis and 4-star 2024 signee AJ Surace.
Penn State — Over 9.5 wins (-172 at FanDuel)
It’s not a huge payout. And the implied probability here is north of 60%. But based off of early SP+ projections (where James Franklin’s group is ranked seventh in the country), Penn State could win 11 games. Yes, we’re doing this again with Drew Allar.
The Nittany Lions should be 7-0 when they face Ohio State at home on Nov. 2. They face USC in Los Angeles on Oct. 12, then have a bye week before playing Wisconsin on the road. Penn State should be a double-digit favorite in both games. None of the first five are interesting.
They return 70% of their production from a season ago, so no real concerns there. They signed a top-15 class on the heels of ranking 13th in the 247 Talent Composite last fall, so recent recruiting history isn’t a concern. They have a dynamic pair of running backs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. They have a weapon at tight end in Tyler Warren and added former Pennsylvania high school standout Julian Fleming from the portal to be a difference-maker in the wide receiver room.
Do you believe the partnership between Allar and new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will unlock the former 5-star recruit’s potential? I tend to lean yes.
Allar was fine in 2023. He had flashes of brilliance, and he was painfully poor in his two biggest games — completing 43% of his passes at 4 yards per play in the losses to Ohio State and Michigan. Allar and the pass game need to find some explosives for him to get going; he attempted only 36 passes of more than 20 air yards, completing 11 of them. Per Pro Football Focus, on those specific passes, he had six touchdowns and only two turnover-worthy throws.
Penn State ranked 75th last fall in offensive efficiency, averaging 5.6 yards a play. Under Kotelnicki, Kansas averaged 7.2 per play to rank sixth nationally. The Jayhawks’ quarterbacks — Jason Bean and Jalon Daniels — went deep on 18% of their throws in 2022 and on 22% of their throws in 2023, per PFF. (Allar was at 9.2% last season.) If the remade 2024 Nittany Lions can present more of a vertical threat, the offense as a whole stands to produce more chunk plays.
This is a program that has produced 10-win campaigns in five of its last seven full seasons. And Michigan comes off the schedule in 2024. If the Kotelnicki-Allar partnership works, Penn State can absolutely do it again.
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