Big Ten Football 2023 Preview: Championship Odds and Picks
2023 may prove to be the most exciting Big Ten football season we’ve seen in years
The 2023 Big Ten football season is shaping up to be one of the strongest in recent memory, with several powerhouse teams vying for national contention. While SEC giants Georgia and Alabama have been the dominant forces in college football, the Big Ten now boasts Penn State and Wisconsin as legitimate national contenders, alongside perennial contenders Michigan and Ohio State. As the conference heads into its final year before further expansion, there’s plenty of intrigue and excitement.
Ohio State had been the dominant force in the Big Ten, clinching four consecutive conference championships from 2017 to 2020, but the power has shifted a bit as it is the Wolverines of Michigan enter 2023 as back-to-back Big Ten champions. Michigan’s chances are bolstered by the return of key players, such as 2022 Heisman contender Blake Corum at running back and talented quarterback J.J. McCarthy. On the other hand, Ohio State has the challenge of replacing standout quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and other significant contributors on both sides of the ball, making the race for the Big Ten title more open than ever in 2023.
No Longer Just a Two-Horse Race
For the first time in a long time, it doesn’t feel like just a two-dog race at the top. Penn State is a team to watch out for in the division, lurking as a formidable contender to Michigan and Ohio State. However, the real intrigue lies in the Big Ten West, where Wisconsin emerges as the favorite. Under the guidance of new coach Luke Fickell, the Badgers have undergone a notable change in their offensive approach. Fickell brought Phil Longo from North Carolina to implement an up-tempo, pass-heavy offense, a serious departure from Wisconsin’s traditional style. Couple that with SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai and the Badgers may actually be as effective through the air as they are on the ground offensively in 2023.
It’s an atmosphere of change in college football, and the Big Ten is no different as they set to welcome at least USC and UCLA in 2024, if not more universities. But 2023 promises to be an exceptional year of Big Ten football as we know it. Let’s look at some of the contenders, sleepers, and picks to win the 2023 Big Ten conference.
The Best Sports Betting Sites for Big Ten Conference Football in 2023
2023 Big Ten Conference Champion Odds
2023 Big Ten Conference Projected Win Totals
2023 Big Ten Contenders
Ohio State Buckeyes +165
Marvin Harrison Jr is the best Wide Receiver in College Footballpic.twitter.com/K9j3kHVv4y
— Mr. Ohio (@MrOH1O) August 3, 2023
Under Ryan Day’s leadership, Ohio State has become known for its loaded offense and a scheme that can elevate quarterbacks to new heights. This year, the Buckeyes have a new signal-caller in Kyle McCord, replacing the now-NFL QB C.J. Stroud. McCord will have the luxury of throwing passes to the sensational Marvin Harrison Jr., who is considered one of the best college receivers in recent memory. With this potent combination, Ohio State remains a top contender in the Big Ten and the college football playoff race.
The Buckeyes boast the nation’s best-receiving corps, which rivals the legendary 2019 Alabama unit. Alongside Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming, both five-star prospects, return to provide further depth and talent to the wide receiver position. Additionally, tight-end Cade Stover and potential Heisman candidate running back TreVeyon Henderson add further threats to the passing game. The chemistry between McCord and Harrison Jr. from their time at St. Joseph’s Preparatory School should aid the quarterback in settling quickly into his new role.
Ohio State’s offense appears poised for success, but the pressure is on for head coach Ryan Day. The team is on a losing streak against their arch-rival, Michigan, and has fallen short of national championship expectations. In response, Day has made changes to the offense, entrusting Brian Hartline with an increased role. While the offensive line must fill the void left by top NFL talent, All-America candidates Matthew Jones and Donovan Jackson are poised to lead the unit’s success.
Despite the changes and challenges, Ohio State remains a favorite in both Big Ten odds and college football playoff odds. The depth and talent in their receiving room, combined with the offensive prowess under Day’s leadership, position the Buckeyes as a formidable force in the national title race. As they look to break their losing streak against Michigan and vie for the championship, the offensive line’s performance will be a crucial factor in determining Ohio State’s success in the 2023 season.
Michigan Wolverines +185
Terrific vision and feel from Michigan RB Blake Corum on this run. pic.twitter.com/16RNUogSNS
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) July 29, 2023
The balance of power in the Big Ten has unmistakably shifted, with Michigan emerging as a dominant force in the conference. Under Jim Harbaugh’s guidance, the Wolverines have transformed into a perennial powerhouse, securing back-to-back Big Ten titles and College Football Playoff appearances, along with crucial victories over arch-rival Ohio State. As they enter the 2023 season, Michigan remains a formidable contender with high expectations, evident from their prominent position in the Big Ten odds.
What sets Michigan apart this year is their impressive combination of accomplishments and a strong returning roster, boasting the eighth-most production in the nation. They have further bolstered their ranks with a top-25 transfer class. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy, along with running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, are legitimate Heisman contenders. Corum, a former Heisman finalist, showcased his prowess until an unfortunate late-season knee injury sidelined him for the last two games. Last season, the Wolverines displayed offensive excellence, ranking third nationally in yards per rush and 11th in rush EPA.
The offensive line has also received substantial reinforcements, with three highly sought-after potential starters joining the team, including standout LaDarius Henderson from Arizona State. With such talent and experience on the offensive side, Michigan’s offense stands out as one of the most formidable in the country and will be an absolute problem in the Big Ten.
On the defensive front, Michigan’s top-five unit from last season may even improve. The addition of pass-rushing standout Josiah Stewart from Coastal Carolina, combined with the return of four starters in the front six, bodes well for their defensive prowess. Defensive back Mike Sainstril has already proven himself a game-changer, playing a key role in shutting down Ohio State in a crucial matchup.
Another advantage for the Wolverines is their 53rd-ranked strength of schedule, making it the fourth-easiest in the Big Ten. This favorable schedule, coupled with two pivotal games against Ohio State and Penn State, sets them up for a promising season and a chance at further conference success. With Michigan’s solid foundation, dominant trench play, and a relatively easy schedule, the Wolverines have secured a prominent place in the Big Ten standings, and their performance in the late-season contests against Penn State and Ohio State will undoubtedly shape their postseason prospects.
Penn State +550
Drew Allar makin’ plays��
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 10, 2022
The 2023 season looks highly promising for Penn State, as they boast perhaps the best overall roster under the leadership of James Franklin since 2017. The Big Ten hasn’t seen a champion not named Michigan or Ohio State since 2016, and that was Penn State, led by James Franklin.
A majority of their production returns on both offense and defense, setting the stage for a potential championship run. The Nittany Lions’ elite defense, already among the best in the Power 5 last year, is expected to further strengthen, particularly in their front lines. On the offensive front, they enjoyed renewed success in the running game in 2022, and the emergence of young talent Drew Allar, who is arguably the most talented Penn State quarterback in years, adds a level of excitement to their offensive prospects. The talent surrounding Allar on offense is impressive, and State College is buzzing with optimism about the team’s potential.
Penn State’s running back corps, led by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, is a force to be reckoned with. Their offensive line ranks among the nation’s best, especially with Olu Fashanu, a top NFL prospect, anchoring the blindside tackle position.
Defensively, Penn State returns 74% of the unit that achieved a top-10 ranking in points per drive last season. Key players like standout corner Kalen King and All-Conference candidate Abdul Carter at linebacker make the Nittany Lions’ defense one of the Big Ten’s strongest.
The real excitement revolves around the rising star, five-star quarterback Drew Allar. With a year of learning the system from the sidelines, an impressive offensive line, and added talent at receiver through the portal, including Dante Cephas from Kent State and Malik McClain from Florida State, Allar has a highly favorable setup to thrive in his first season as a starting QB.
Coming off a triumphant Rose Bowl victory, Penn State sets its sights on another successful season with 10 or more wins. Key matchups against Michigan and at Ohio State highlight a slightly favorable schedule. The big one is at Ohio State following a bye week and an easier game against UMass and may be the game that decides the fate of 2023 for the Nittany Lions. With their potential and talent, Penn State has all the elements in place for a highly rewarding 2023 season.
2023 Big Ten Sleeper
Wisconsin +800
Tanner Mordecai DIME��
— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 3, 2023
Wisconsin may be the team I’m most excited to see as a new era has arrived in Madison, bringing with it a significant transformation to the identity of Wisconsin football. Under the guidance of head coach Luke Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo, the Badgers are poised for a modernization that promises to revitalize their offensive approach. Traditionally known for their under-center, run-heavy style against stacked defenses, the Badgers are embracing a fresh, up-tempo strategy that focuses on explosive passing plays.
Longo, who previously led UNC to three consecutive top-25 offenses in points per drive, has instilled a new offensive philosophy at Wisconsin. His success in developing quarterbacks like Sam Howell and Drake Maye into Heisman contenders has already generated excitement among the players. This was evident in the decision of star QB Tanner Mordecai to transfer to Wisconsin from SMU for one final season in college, joining the program’s rebranding efforts. Additionally, highly-regarded four-star recruit Nick Evers, formerly from Oklahoma, adds depth and talent to the quarterback position.
One key beneficiary of this offensive transformation is bruising running back Braelon Allen, who now looks forward to facing fewer eight- and nine-man defensive fronts. However, the offensive line, a traditionally strong unit for Wisconsin, will face some challenges with only two returning starters and a new coach, Bob Bostad.
The Badgers’ revamped offense, led by Mordecai’s fearlessness in pushing the ball downfield, is expected to generate more explosive plays through the air, marking a stark contrast to their previous glacial pace. This shift in tempo combined with their typically dominant defensive front makes Wisconsin a formidable contender in a conference where consistent quarterback play is not guaranteed.
The Badgers have a highly favorable schedule, avoiding challenging opponents like Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten East and hosting their toughest games, Ohio State and Iowa, at home. This advantageous schedule, along with their overall talent level, positions Wisconsin as the team to beat in their division. Betting on them at +800 seems like a must-play, even if it’s just a sprinkle.
With a new-look offense and a favorable schedule, Wisconsin is primed to make a significant impact in the Big Ten this season. The rebranding of the program is sure to excite fans and set the stage for a successful and promising campaign in Madison.
The Picks
Michigan Wolverines +185 to win the Big Ten
I just can’t ignore how much talent they return. Aside from Harbaugh being suspended the first four games (ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers), they have next to no question marks. After two semi-tests early at Nebraska and at Minnesota, all eyes turn to a November 11th date at Penn State. If they get out of there with a W, they host Ohio State at home on Thanksgiving weekend. I actually believe that on the road in Happy Valley may be a bigger test for this group. They’ve beaten Ohio State both at home and on the road and they truly believe they are superior, especially after beating them up in Columbus last year, 45-23, outscoring the Buckeyes 28-3 in the second half. Go Blue in 2023.
Wisconsin Badgers Over 8.5 Wins -115
I like Wisco a lot this year and as I’ve said, I can’t wait to see this new look offense. But what is even more appealing is the schedule they play.
I think there is a legitimate chance that Wisconsin could be 7-0 going into a late October, home matchup against Ohio State. But even if they slip up at Purdue or perhaps at Wazzou, they’d still just need three wins against IU on the road, Northwestern at home, Nebraska at home, and then at Minny. I think the absolute floor is 8 wins and the ceiling is 11 wins for this squad. Give us the over.
