Betting the NFL: Mayfield and OBJ Highlight Week 18 Player Prop Markets to Consider

Week 18 in the NFL offers one final week for players to cash incentives in their respective contracts. That information can be quite helpful when surveying the player prop market for what is typically a difficult week to assess motivation for teams and players.

Here are a handful of the players nearing substantial paydays along with reasons to play or stay away from that market at DraftKings.

Odell Beckham, Jr. Baltimore Ravens | Touchdowns – STAY AWAY

OBJ’s case is an interesting one. He needs two touchdowns to secure a $250,000 bonus. However, Lamar Jackson, the presumptive MVP, may not dress Saturday vs. the Steelers. Baltimore has zero to gain. They are the top seed in the AFC and nothing that happens in Week 18 will change that. If Jackson sits, Tyler Huntley will step under center. Huntley logged substantial minutes last season, but the former Utah Ute has thrown just nine passes this campaign completing six including two touchdowns. Assuming Beckham even dresses for the game, doubtful he reaches the endzone twice. Proceed with caution in this market once it is posted.

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Jadeveon Clowney, Baltimore Ravens | Sacks - PLAY

The former #1 overall draft pick (2014) has been dominant at times in Baltimore as his 8.5 sacks might suggest. Clowney cleared one million dollars for hitting that mark and if he can add even just ½ sack this weekend, the bonus payment will balloon another 750K. But will Clowney play? And if so, how long? The defensive end has played in all but one of the Ravens’ games to this point on the season. That is a career high for the oft-injured star. What do they gain by playing him Sunday? Very little other than good will in a locker room focused on the bigger picture. While this is a smarter bet than the previously discussed Beckham bet, not sure it is worth more than a sprinkle at most due to all the unknowns at this point in the week.

Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sacks - PLAY

The veteran linebacker has 4.5 sacks. If he can get just a ½ sack at Carolina this weekend, David will qualify for an additional $150,000. Only the Giants (83) and Jets (63) have been sacked more than the Panthers (62). Couple that with the fact the Bucs are playing to win the NFC South and Lavonte David to secure that ½ sack is a smart bet.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Passing Markets - PLAY

The Bucs have been led to the brink of the NFC South title by Mayfield. He will earn an extra $300,000 in each of the following markets – passing yards, completion percentage, passer rating, touchdown passes, and yards per attempt - should he finish in either the NFC’s Top 5 or Top 10 in the entire NFL. That is potentially an extra 1.5 million dollars. Assuming he has even an average day Sunday at Carolina, Mayfield is on track to cash in each of those markets except potentially completion percentage where he sits 7 in the NFC and 13 in the NFL overall. Mayfield passing markets are worth a taste once posted.

Additional note: Amidst all the hype for Joe Flacco (+100) for CPOY, if you are not betting for the Bills’ Damar Hamlin (-140), you should think long and hard about Mayfield (+1200). His case is strong and becomes stronger should the Bucs win the South.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers | Rushing & Receiving Yards – STAY AWAY

The Chargers’ veteran back needs 110 total yards to earn a $100,000 bonus. It has been a rare weekend when Ekeler has reached 110 total yards hitting the mark just three times and not once since November 12 against Detroit. Since that game, Austin Ekeler has reached 100 total yards just once. The Chargers’ opponent, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, are locked in as the #3 seed in the AFC. While the offense has been clunky at best and the defense has looked a bit fatigued lately, no word yet on Andy Reid’s thoughts on his lineup for the regular season finale. Regardless, it is doubtful Ekeler turns his touches into enough yards to eclipse the 110-yard mark.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals | Touchdowns - PLAY

Mixon has eight rushing and two receiving TDs. Scoring ten times earned him an extra $250,000. If he can reach paydirt two times this weekend vs. Cleveland, he can add an additional 100K to that haul. The Browns have given up a mere 37 TDs (15 rushing/22 passing) on the season. However, they are locked in as the #5 seed in the AFC and could well sit much of that ferocious defense. It is definitely worth researching the Browns’ expected lineup for Sunday. If they sit any of their big guns along that defensive line, it will be a sweat but may be worth a play on Mixon to reach paydirt twice this weekend.

Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs | Sacks – PLAY

While we may not see too many of the Chiefs’ top players for long in their game against the Chargers, expect Jones to play at least long enough to register 0.5 sacks. The soon to be free agent sits ½ sack from a $1,250,000 bonus. With sacks in each of the last two games and four in the last five, the All-Pro is salivating at the thought of lining up against the Chargers’ 25-ranked offensive line. Jones may well sit out much of this game, but he undoubtedly is aware of what he needs in order to reach that bonus. Doubtful he exits the game before cashing it.

Keep an eye on the active/inactive lists for the week and enjoy the sweat along with a handful of the players looking to cash a few bonus checks in Week 18.