Biggest surprises of 2023 MLB season

You should not be surprised to be reading this. We publish a list of biggest surprises of the season each year around this time.

But you should be surprised by everything we’re about to discuss. No matter how far we've come in our ability to dissect every number and nuance associated with Major League Baseball, we will never not be caught off-guard by what happens when you have 30 teams of 26 men playing 162 baseball games.

Here are 10 things that have happened that no one -- no, not even you -- saw coming.

1. The O’s became elite … without major additions
Baltimore previewed its potential last season. And so, on one hand, a rise into earnest contention for the American League East was the next, natural step for this maturing ballclub.

But it’s not like the O’s made a bunch of offseason splashes (unless you think Kyle Gibson qualifies as such) to become everybody’s pick to click in the deep AL East. And while some of the improvement is attributable to things you didn’t have to squint hard to see -- such as the continued clout of Adley Rutschman or the rookie impact of Gunnar Henderson -- raise your hand if you had Yennier Cano (23 runs, 26 hits and 16 walks allowed in 18 big league innings last year) emerging as one of the best relievers in MLB, Ryan O’Hearn (.683 OPS in five seasons with the Royals) providing above-average offense from the DH spot, Aaron Hicks (.524 OPS with the Yankees this year) serving as a key in-season pickup and Kyle Bradish (former relief prospect who had a 4.90 ERA in 23 starts last year) emerging as a rotation leader.

2. The Yankees, Mets, Padres and Cardinals might ALL miss the playoffs
These were all playoff teams last year and were all popular picks to win their respective divisions this year. Prior to the season, FanGraphs gave each at least a 67% chance of making the playoffs and forecast division titles for all but the Mets (the system projected the Mets to finish with the National League’s third-best record and top Wild Card spot).

What were the chances that all four of these clubs would stumble this season? To paraphrase Springfield Nuclear Power Plant owner C. Montgomery Burns, one misfortune seemed possible. Two or three? An outside chance. But four misfortunes? I’d like to see that!

Well, unless the Yankees and Padres get their acts together in the home stretch, we’re going to see that. That the Yanks could finish under .500 for the first time since 1992 is a shocker all its own.

3. The Rangers are a juggernaut … without Jacob deGrom
An injury to deGrom? OK, yes, we absolutely could have seen that coming, unfortunately. But it’s pretty incredible that getting only 30 1/3 innings out of their $185 million man this season hasn’t had the slightest impact on a Rangers team that entered the year with plenty to prove. Of course, trading for Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery helps, but the Rangers had already jumped out to first place in the AL West by the time they made those deals because of an explosive offense and because Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Dane Dunning had all stepped up in a big way in deGrom’s absence.

Oh, it’s also worth noting that the Rangers have made this leap despite continued struggles in the one-run games (9-15) that were their bugaboo in 2022 (15-35). But now they just don’t play as many of them. Genius!

4. Ronald Acuña, Jr. is making stolen base history
Acuña is as electric a player as exists in MLB, and we knew the 2023 environment would be ripe for bigger stolen base totals because of the pickoff limits and bigger bags. But Acuña was not quite his electric self in his return from major right knee surgery last season, so it was fair to wonder if an injury of that magnitude would limit his aggressiveness on the basepaths as he matures in his career.

Welp. Acuña is not just a major threat on the bases again; he is far and away the most daring thief in the league. He’s a veritable lock to become the first to reach 60 steals in a season since Dee Strange-Gordon in 2017. That year, Strange-Gordon hit two homers. Acuña is going to finish 2023 with … just a few more than that. In fact, he is likely to become the first player ever to hit 30 homers with 60 steals. Heck, with 28 dingers and 55 steals already, he could get to both before the calendar even reaches September.

5. Shohei Ohtani is the AL home run leader … by a lot
Ohtani’s 39 homers before August were just three shy of Aaron Judge’s mark at the end of July last year. Having cooled some in August, Ohtani no longer appears to be a threat to unseat Judge as the all-time AL single-season home run king. But considering he has a 3.17 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 130 2/3 innings pitched, we’ll forgive him if he falls short in that particular department.

As of this writing, Ohtani has 43 home runs -- 11 more than White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. in second place in the AL. Do we need to say that a pitcher leading his league in homers is completely, utterly insane? Good. Glad we have that covered.

6. The Reds and Marlins are contenders
There are several surprising aspects to the NL Wild Card field right now. The Giants and Cubs have both been much better than advertised. And though the D-backs have faded, they’re in contention ahead of most people’s schedule for them.

But the real shockers, we would argue, are the Reds and the Fish.

Were we highlighting individual moments, rather than season-long storylines, we would suggest that Elly De La Cruz swiping three bags in the span of three pitches is something no one saw coming (the Brewers certainly didn’t see it coming). And that’s a signature moment for a fun Reds team that got a burst of electricity from De La Cruz’s arrival and surprising offensive impact from Will Benson, TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Matt McLain and others.

In Miami, huge offensive seasons from Jorge Soler and offseason acquisition Luis Arraez, the arrival of 20-year-old pitching sensation Eury Pérez, the recent trades for Josh Bell and Jake Burger and other positive developments have the Marlins in contention for their first full-season playoff appearance since 2003. You are just one flux capacitor and DMC DeLorean away from going back in time to March and betting everything you own on the Mets becoming Trade Deadline sellers to the Marlins.

7. The Twins’ rotation is great
An AL Central title is looking increasingly inevitable for the Twins, and that was not inconceivable. But forgive us if we thought the Twins’ road to first place would feature quite a bit more offense from Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton than they’ve received.

Instead, it’s an unheralded rotation leading the way. Sonny Gray (142 ERA+), Bailey Ober (127) and trade acquisition Pablo López (118) have all been terrific for a Twins team that -- believe it or not -- has the highest FanGraphs WAR (13.1) of any rotation in MLB.

8. The 2022-23 free-agent field has been … not so great
Look back at our list of the top free agents from what had seemed one of the deepest and most dynamic classes in recent memory, and there’s not a lot to make you feel warm and fuzzy right now.

Without getting into all the specifics here, injuries have hindered the impacts of Judge, as well as top starters deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón. Top shortstops Trea Turner, Correa and Xander Bogaerts have all had less-than-dynamic campaigns, José Abreu is having the worst season of his career, and the most notable aspect of Willson Contreras’ year was that brief period when he was moved off the catcher position.

Not every deal has been a dud, of course, and there’s a lot of time before the final evaluation of most of these contracts. But for now, it’s surprising how little impact has come from the upper echelon of last winter’s open market.

9. The Rays’ lineup is powerful
Tampa Bay was not able to maintain its absurd early season home run pace (100 home runs before the calendar flipped to June). But for the Rays to currently rank fourth in MLB in both home runs (177, as of this writing) and slugging percentage (.444) is pretty shocking, given that they ranked 25th in both of those categories last year and didn’t make major personnel changes.

The Rays exceeded last year’s home run total (139) in just their 94th game of 2023!

10. Pitch timer violations are really rare
Screaming heads worried about chaos associated with the timer. Cooler heads figured a full month of Spring Training acclimation would prevent the regular season from getting too messy in the automatic ball-and-strike department. But the acclimation to the timer has arguably been more rapid than even the most optimistic souls could have expected.

In the first batch of 100 games, there were 0.87 violations per game (combined total for both teams). In the most recent batch of 100 games, there were only 0.31 violations per game. So, about one violation every three games. For context, consider that in the final week of the Minor League season last year, there were 0.41 violations per game.

If there was any concern that baked-in big leaguers would take longer to adjust than their Minor League counterparts, we seem to have nipped that in the bud.