Birmingham Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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21 December 2023

Birmingham Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

This year's Birmingham Bowl features two teams on different paths. Troy has won 10 straight, while Duke limps in and has a slew of players in the transfer portal. What does this mean for our college football betting picks? Read on to find out!

The Troy Trojans will look to build on their 10-game winnings streak as they take on the Duke Blue Devils in the Birmingham Bowl on Saturday afternoon.

Both Troy (11-2) and Duke (7-5) will be playing under interim head coaches after their leaders left for larger jobs following the regular season. The college football odds are making the Trojans a touchdown favorite over the Blue Devils, who dropped four of their last six games to end the year.

Troy has gotten used to winning, but it’s been some time since they’ve played a team as talented as Duke. We’ll break down the matchup in our free college football picks and predictions for Troy vs. Duke on December 23.

Troy vs Duke best odds

Troy vs Duke picks and predictions

Troy is enjoying an excellent run, as it has clinched another double-digit win season after going 12-2 last year. The Trojans picked up their second consecutive Sun Belt conference title in style, with their only conference loss coming to the ascendent James Madison Dukes, who are not yet eligible for bowl play. Instead, Troy defeated the Appalachian State Mountaineers 49-23 earlier this month in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

The Trojans have been impressive in their 10-game winning streak. During that period, they’ve been outscoring opponents by an average of 19.5 points. Opponents have struggled to score against a Troy defense that is allowing just 4.8 yards per play, good for 12th in the nation, with impressive numbers against both the pass and the run.

The only problem with this run is the competition that it has come against. Appalachian State was perhaps the best team that Troy beat during this streak, as it played one of the weaker schedules in the country. The Trojans lost 16-14 to James Madison, a team that rates extremely similar to Duke, and lost 42-13 at the Kansas State Wildcats, their only true quality opponent this season.

That raises the question: how will Troy stack up against a solid ACC opponent in Duke? The Blue Devils have lost a handful of key contributors to the transfer portal, but this was never a team that relied much on star power. The Duke offense has been okay on the run and slightly worse in the air, while the defense has held opponents to just 19.8 points per game.

The Blue Devils will miss defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles and defensive end RJ Oben, who combined for nine sacks this season, as well as running back Jordan Waters, who led the team with 12 scores. But Waters arguably wasn’t even the most effective back on the team this season – Jaquez Moore averaged 5.9 yards per carry – and there’s enough depth on Duke’s defense to put up a fight against a Troy offense that went concerningly quiet against stronger opposition.

Those losses may well be enough for Troy to compete with – and even potentially win against – Duke on Saturday. The Trojans will also get a nice boost from playing in Alabama, where their fans will buy up most of the tickets for the Birmingham Bowl.

But none of this is enough to justify a line that has gone north of a full touchdown at most books. I’m not looking to pick Duke to win this game outright, but I’m absolutely going to pick the Blue Devils to cover this generous spread.

My best bet: Duke +7.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Troy vs Duke same-game parlay

Duke +7.5Over 44.5 points

Duke +4.5 first half

Duke should be able to stay in this game, which is why I’m taking the Blue Devils on the spread as my best bet. It’s also the lynchpin of my same-game parlay for the Birmingham Bowl. I’ll also throw in a bet on the over at a reasonable 44.5 points. While both teams played solid defense for much of the year, they’ve been playing to larger totals lately. Duke has gone Over 44.5 in each of its last four games, as has Troy.

Finally, let’s throw in a bet on Duke to cover the first-half spread as well. There could be some talent shock for the Trojans early on, as they haven’t played a team of Duke’s caliber since early in the season. Duke may well jump out to an early lead, with Troy only coming back in the second half.

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Troy vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

Troy opened the Birmingham Bowl as a seven-point favorite over Duke. The consensus line has moved to Troy -7.5, with Troy often posted with added juice even on that line. As a result, we can find -105 on Duke, while -110 is the best you can do on the Trojans.

Troy has been good against the spread this year, putting up an 8-5 ATS record. Duke has been even against the number, with a 6-6 overall ATS mark on the season.

One important thing to note about Troy’s ATS success this year is that it mostly came against Sun Belt opponents. The Trojans went 1-3 against the spread when facing non-conference opponents, with the one win coming against a mediocre Army squad. This is a team that has struggled against quality opponents while dominating weaker ones. I’m backing the Blue Devils, especially since I can win even if Duke loses by a clean touchdown margin.

The total for Saturday’s matchup opened at just 44 points. Bettors have moved that number upwards slightly, with the consensus Over/Under sitting at 44.5 as of Tuesday. Generally speaking, you’ll find -110 on both sides of the market at most sites.

Duke was a strong Over team this season, with the Over posting a 7-4-1 record in Blue Devils games. Troy played slightly below the number, with the Under posting a 7-6 record when the Trojans took the field.

Right now, both teams are on long streaks of hitting the Over. Troy has done so four straight times, while Duke has hit the Over in fie of their last six games. There’s a clear trend of both of these seemingly solid defenses running into trouble against stronger opponents, especially later in the year. I’m leaning towards the Over.