Duke vs. Troy odds, line: 2023 Birmingham Bowl picks, college football predictions from proven simulation
The Troy Trojans seek back-to-back victories for the second time in program history when they square off against the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday in the 2023 Birmingham Bowl. Coach Jon Sumrall led the Trojans (11-2) to their second consecutive Sun Belt championship before taking the Tulane job ahead of bowl season. Even so, the club will look to finish off its historic season with a bowl win after beating UTSA 18-12 in last year's Cure Bowl. Duke (7-5) also seeks consecutive bowl wins after clipping Central Florida 30-13 in last year's Military Bowl, though the Blue Devils are going through a coaching transition of their own and are missing many key players such as quarterback Riley Leonard (injury/transfer), running back Jordan Waters (transfer) and receiver Jalon Calhoun (NFL opt out).
Kickoff is set for noon ET from Protective Stadium. The Trojans are 7.5-point favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 44 in the latest Troy vs. Duke odds via SportsLine consensus. Before finalizing any Duke vs. Troy picks, be sure to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Troy and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Troy vs. Duke:
- Troy vs. Duke point spread: Troy -7.5
- Troy vs. Duke over/under total: 44 points
- Troy vs. Duke money line: Troy -303, Duke +240
- TROY: The Trojans have played under the total in 10 of their past 11 games.
- DUKE: The Blue Devils are 2-2 against the spread as an underdog this season.
- Troy vs. Duke live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why Troy can cover
On the heels of back-to-back Sun Belt championship seasons, it came as no surprise that Sumrall would be a hot commodity on the open market. Sure enough, Sumrall announced his departure to Tulane shortly after the conference championship game. Although programs often take at least a temporary morale bruise upon such a transition, the Trojans appear to be in a good place. For one, the program wasted no time in hiring Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker as the new head coach, a move that was roundly applauded among Troy boosters and supporters.
What's more, defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato was named interim coach for the Birmingham Bowl, and it appears the team has rallied around him. Although his future with the program remains unclear, Gasparato told the media he is doing everything in his power to prepare the Trojans for success in the game, along with ensuring the players have a memorable experience.
"I just told them the bowl game is a reward for a great season that they have earned and not nobody else," Gasparato said. "There's not one coach on the field that has made one play this year, so they've earned this, and they need to enjoy it." See which team to pick here.
Why Duke can cover
The Blue Devils were one of the biggest surprises in college football last season, with a nine-win campaign that included a 30-13 victory over Central Florida in the Military Bowl. They appeared poised to pick up where they left off, posting a 28-7 home win over Clemson as a two-touchdown underdog in Week 1.
The Blue Devils rolled to three more lopsided victories before coming up short 21-14 against Notre Dame, the game in which Leonard was injured. Amid Leonard's absence due to injury, the Blue Devils struggled to find efficient quarterback play and the offense stumbled to just 23 points in the next three games combined. However, freshman quarterback Grayson Loftis showed improvement as the season progressed, and Duke's underrated defense allowed it to remain competitive. Loftis threw for 248 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the win over Pitt. See which team to pick here.
How to make Troy vs. Duke picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 42 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
