College Football Totals Picks Bowl Games: Over or Under Predictions for This Week
Bowl season is merrily upon us, and we have a few more shots at my favorite target, the college football totals market. We went 2-1 in our Conference Championship picks but only eeked out a half-unit profit. We look to finish the season as strong as we started and finish in the black.
Assessing bowl games presents the most demanding challenge for a professional handicapper. Bowl games added a few significant aspects that must be factored in when breaking down a contest. While every team is trying to win, who emerges victorious is not always the most important priority for a team. Many coaches are looking to get a head start on the future and gauge talent levels for next season. Players opting out and entering the transfer portal, not to mention the start of the coaching carousel, are some factors that don't arise during the regular season.
Luckily for gamblers, the handicappers at Docs have been tracking every opt-out, transfer portal entry, and coaching change to give you the best chance of success in your Bowl campaign. Using Doc's patented "Unit Betting System," we hope to maximize gains and minimize losses.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl- Dec. 21st, 8:00 pm ESPN
(6-6) South Florida vs. (6-6) Syracuse (-3/61.5)
The opt-outs and coaching changes are the first thing to check in every bowl game. South Florida lost three non-starters and no coaching, while Syracuse lost edge rusher Leon Lower ( 46 tackles/7.5 TFL/3.5 Sacks), CB Jeremiah Wilson (1 INT), and a few other defensive players. The Orangemen fired 8-year head coach Dino Babers on Nov. 20th and will be led by interim head coach Nunzo Campanile.
This total hinges solely on what South Florida can do on offense. The Bulls are allowing 34.9 points per game against the 115th-ranked schedule in the nation. While the Orangemen are not an offensive juggernaut, they averaged scoring 25.5 ppg while giving up a moderately-impressive 23.8 ppg. That stat becomes even more impressive when you realize Syracuse's conference points allowed was 30.3. South Florida feasted on the relatively weak American Conference but only scored more than 30 points out of conference once, against an FCS program. For this to go over, Syracuse would have to score about 37 points, a feat they accomplished only once against a FBS opponent (they scored 65 against FCS Colgate). This could be a nail-biter, but we see the under as the play. PICK: UNDER 61.5 3-units
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl- Dec. 22nd, 6:30 pm ESPN
(6-6) Georgia Tech vs. (6-6) UCF (-4.5/67.5)
The only significant name not playing is Georgia Tech's leading sack meister, edge rusher Kyle Kennard (54 tackles/11 TFL/6 sacks). That is a blow to the Yellow Jacket's stop unit, but as they already gave up 30.5 ppg, the loss will have minimal effect on scoring.
UCF's defense does an excellent job impersonating Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde. During their 5-game losing streak smack-dab in the middle of the season, the Knights gave up 40.6 ppg. In their other six games against FBS teams, they were allowing 14.7 ppg. Georgia Tech's offense's best game was their season-opener against Louisville. They scored more points in other contests, but Louisville's defense was the 2nd-best unit in the ACC in points allowed. The Yellow Jackets feasted on the middle and bottom teams in the conference but were average against the better defenses. Central Florida consistently went up against better offenses and should be able to handle Georgia Tech's, making another under wager the way to go. PICK: UNDER 67.5 3-units
Birmingham Bowl- Dec. 23rd, Noon ABC
(11-2) Troy vs. (7-5) Duke (+7.5/44.5)
Troy is lucky enough to be one of the few schools with no opt-outs but will be replacing their head coach, Jon Sumrall, with defensive coordinator Greg Gaparato. Duke isn't so lucky, as head coach Mike Elko takes over at Texas A&M, and interim head coach Trooper Taylor will officially be calling the plays on Saturday. Starting QB Riley Leonard is entering the portal but has been injured half the season and is still unable to play. Of more important concern is starting RB Jordan Waters, his 12 TDs not being present, and the Blue Devils' top two sack artists.
The previous injury to Blue Devil QB Leonard is significant because Duke played as much without him as they did with him. His replacement, Grayson Loftis, actually has over twice as many touchdown passes (7 to 3), while both have tossed three picks. Over the last four games, Duke has put up 31.5 ppg. Where the opt-outs will really sting is on the defensive side of the ball. The Blue Devils come into the bowl with the 22nd-ranked scoring defense, allowing 19.8 ppg. Duke loses 33% of their sacks, with R.J. Oben and Aeneas Peebles entering the portal. Troy's offense was in the top third of the country at 31.2 ppg.
With Duke losing their top RB in Waters, they will be forced to rely more heavily on the QB Loftis. The Trojans will also score, and this game could quickly evolve into a Southern Shootout. PICK: OVER 44.5 4-units
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