Blackhawks vs. Senators predictions: backup goalies provide value on total
We have Blackhawks vs. Senators predictions as Chicago looks to snap a three-game losing streak.
Chicago’s opponents Friday are the Ottawa Senators, who have won six of their past seven games.
So, it won’t be easy toppling the red-hot Senators, but that’s exactly what the ice-cold Blackhawks will attempt to do.
Read on for the odds and my prediction and pick for Blackhawks vs. Senators.
Moneyline: Blackhawks (+220) vs. Senators (-275)
Spread: Blackhawks +1.5 (-110) vs. Senators -1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115)
Ottawa Senators team total over 4 goals (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Initially, I was going to bet the over 6.5 (-105) because of the goalkeeping matchup.
Ottawa’s two main goalkeepers (Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg) are injured for the foreseeable future. That leaves third-stringer Mads Soogard in the net, which isn’t the most appealing option.
Meanwhile, the Senators are staring down Chicago’s Petr Mrazek, who is horrific in the net. By Goals Saved Above Average, Mrazek ranks 41st of 46 goalies that have played at least 20 games (-10.7), per Money Puck.
However, the problem is Chicago’s offense. The Blackhawks have an NHL-low 127 goals this year, which is 13 behind second-to-last Columbus, and their advanced metrics track with the awful results.
But while we can’t trust Chicago to score, we can still trust Ottawa.
The Senators have an above-average offense, ranking top-10 in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength, per Tony Satori of The Action Network. The Sens have also been hot lately, scoring at least four goals in four of their past six games (26 overall).
The Senators have three 20-goal scorers on the season, too. We can trust Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux to put pucks on the net.
And Ottawa’s top goalkeepers being out is an advantage in this case. If the Blackhawks sneak one or two by a third-string goalkeeper, the Senators’ offense will be forced to keep its foot on the gas.
Meanwhile, on average, Chicago’s Mrazek allows four goals per game, including nine in his past two starts. Since we’re betting on an above-average offense, the even-money price offered at BetMGM Sportsbook is more than fair.
And there’s no reason to trust the defense in front of Mrazek. The Blackhawks are 29th in even-strength expected goals allowed.
Trust in Ottawa’s offense to take advantage of Mrazek and the Blackhawks’ defense Friday night.
