Golden Knights vs. Blackhawks prediction: trends pointing toward this best bet

We have a Golden Knights vs. Blackhawks prediction as Vegas and Chicago meet for the third time this season.

These Golden Knights vs. Blackhawks games have followed a similar trend, and I expect the same on Tuesday night.

So, read on for the odds and my prediction and pick for this edition of Golden Knights vs. Blackhawks.

Moneyline: Golden Knights (-285) vs. Blackhawks (+228)

Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (-115) vs. Blackhawks +1.5 (-105)

Total: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115)

Under 6.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Golden Knights should win this game. It’s an excellent sell-high spot for the Blackhawks, who (miraculously) have won two straight, against Toronto and Ottawa.

However, there is no value in the current moneyline number. The fair price for Vegas is probably around -250, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable laying that juice with any road NHL team.

However, I’m willing to bet Vegas wins with its defense, so I’m ready to bet under 6.5 (-115).

The Knights have always won with depth and defense. Vegas has talent from the top forward line to the third defensive pairing, and the Knights are third in the West in goals per game allowed (2.8), per Quant Hockey, and second in the NHL in Expected Goals Allowed (153.03), per Money Puck.

In fact, the Knights have been excellent on defense, but the advanced statistics are calling for positive regression on that end. It may be wise to bet the under on Vegas games in the future.

I would definitely bet the under when Vegas plays on the road. The Knights are a surprising 17-5 straight up (SU) away from Vegas this year, mostly by shutting down opposing attacks, as the total has stayed under in eight of the Knights’ past 10 games on the road, per Bet Labs.

I am slightly worried about Vegas’ goaltending situation. The Knights are short on goalkeepers and are starting Laurent Brossoit, who is making his first start this year.

Moreover, Brossoit’s career stats aren’t pretty. He boasts a career -11.6 Goals Saved Above Average and had a save percentage below .900 with Vegas last season, per Hockey Reference.

However, Brossoit stands a chance against Chicago’s pathetic offense. The Hawks rank last in the NHL in goals per game (2.47) and Expected Goals For (143.26), per Money Puck, and it isn’t particularly close.

The Blackhawks cannot generate offense against anyone, and they’re due for some negative regression after netting nine goals over the past two games. I expect that regression to come against a stout Vegas defense.

And these Vegas-Chicago games tend to follow this trend. Both games between the Knights and Blackhawks have gone under this season, and four of the past five games between these two in Chicago have stayed under.

The Action Network’s PRO model projects the total at 5.93 for Tuesday’s Knights vs. Blackhawks game, providing plenty of value on the under 6.5 (-115) number available at Caesars Sportsbook.