Blue Jays betting trends: Scouting the Yankees, Rays amid playoff push

Inside The Star

18 September 2023

Blue Jays betting trends: Scouting the Yankees, Rays amid playoff push

The MLB playoffs are always filled with emotional highs and lows. And depending on the team, the run-up to the postseason can have plenty of palpable swings, too.

Toronto looked like a borderline lost cause just a few days ago after taking a four-game sweep at the hands of Texas. But the Blue Jays responded by grabbing their own broom against the Red Sox, and suddenly, playoff hopes have been restored.

Let's dive into Toronto's playoff odds, along with prop bet standouts and more, with our latest Blue Jays betting trends.

Blue Jays betting trends

Will the Jays make the playoffs?

The last time we asked this question, the answer was, "Probably not." And as of Friday morning, the Blue Jays' chances looked as bleak as ever.

Toronto dropped all four home games against Texas from Sept. 11-14, which was a particularly stinging blow given that the Jays and Rangers are in direct competition for a playoff spot.

Now, the Blue Jays don't hold the tiebreaker over either the Mariners or Rangers. But it might not matter.

With a three-game sweep over the Red Sox this past weekend — including a pair of victories in walk-off fashion — Toronto is now a massive favourite to make the playoffs.

Just look at how the Blue Jays' playoff odds have cratered and mooned in the past week at FanGraphs. "Rollercoaster" might be a cliched descriptor, but sometimes it's perfectly accurate:

FanGraphs had the Blue Jays at their lowest point — 33.6% — on Sept. 14. They entered play on Sept. 18 at 78.4%.

At NorthStar Bets, you'd have to lay -400 juice right now to back the Blue Jays to make the playoffs. And maybe that seems odd considering Toronto is only 1.5 games clear of the Seattle, who currently sits in fourth.

Here's one very important factor to consider, though. The Blue Jays are poised to benefit from the fact that the Rangers and Mariners have seven head-to-head matchups in their final 10 games.

If one team dominates the other, that's a win for Toronto.

Scouting the Yankees, Rays

The Blue Jays' final 12 games are split evenly between the Yankees and the Rays. Toronto has struggled against both teams — leaning into the overarching theme of its AL East woes this season — but there's still time for that to change.

And despite Toronto's losing record against New York and Tampa Bay, the Jays have positive run differentials against both. So it's not all bad.

Let's look at some betting trends for both of Toronto's remaining opponents, starting with New York:

The under has hit in five of their seven matchups, which shouldn't be too surprising given that both Toronto (55.6%) and New York (53.8%) rank in the top 10 in unders percentage this year, per TeamRankings.

Now let's check in on the Blue Jays vs. Rays season series:

Six of Toronto's nine games against Tampa finished with nine or more runs — including the Jays' 20-run outburst on May 23. If Toronto can get its bats rolling, Tampa is well equipped to take part in a barn-burner.

The Rays have the fourth-highest team OPS (.773) and are tied for the third-most home runs (216).

Blue Jays betting trends: Who's hot, who's not

If you're looking to make some prop bets on upcoming Blue Jays games, here are some names and trends to be mindful of.

Jose Berrios: It's official, Berrios has regained his groove. After giving up 10 runs over his final two starts in August (his worst two-start stretch since April), Berrios responded with three quality starts so far in September.

He also has recorded seven-plus strikeouts in four of his past six starts and will see a relatively strikeout-friendly Yankees team next.

Whit Merrifield: Merrifield had about a month in the leadoff spot, but since late August he's primarily batted in the No. 5-7 spots. And the lineup demotion has led to a statistical decline.

In 14 starts from Aug. 27 onward, Merrifield has been hitless five times and gone under 1.5 bases 11 times. You might think his RBI opportunities would take off, but he only has five RBIs in those 14 starts, too.

George Springer: Remember Springer's 2-for-55 slump from late July into early August? He's not in that territory yet, but his 2-for-24 skid right now is still something to monitor.

Forget about bases props — Springer has gone eight straight games without scoring a run. As a leadoff man, that is pretty bleak stuff.