Blue Jays picks and props vs. Rangers Sept. 14: Behind Gausman, bet on Toronto to win

A disastrous series for the Blue Jays would at least finish on a positive note if they can claw out a win tonight against the Rangers.

The pregame narrative: The only thing standing between Toronto and a sweep might be a gem from starter Kevin Gausman. He's up against Nathan Eovaldi tonight as the Jays and Rangers close the book on their season series.

See how we're betting on this matchup with our Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 14.

MLB oddsas of 9:00 a.m. ET on 09/14/2023.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers

Best Bet: Blue Jays -1 (-113)

As boos rained down at Rogers Centre last night — shortly before the conclusion of a 10-0 loss — the Blue Jays reached the darkest hour of their season.

On Thursday, we're looking for their staff ace to be a bright spot.

Gausman, the most valuable AL pitcher by FanGraphs' WAR (5.2), is coming off a dazzling 8.0-inning performance of one-run ball. He struck out 10, which marked the AL strikeout leader's highest total since June.

Speaking of June, that's when he last faced Texas, holding the fiery offence to one run over 6.0 innings in a 2-1 win.

This looks like an ace-on-ace matchup, with Eovaldi on the other side, but the Rangers starter will likely have a short leash. He's only three starts removed from a lengthy injured list stint, and he was on a pitch count (45-50) last time out.

Toronto shouldn't mind facing Eovaldi, though. The active lineup is batting .304 with a .471 SLG against him in 102 at-bats, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Toronto has won each of Gausman's past three starts, and he's holding opponents to a .230 batting average in 14 home outings.

Quick picks

Under 0.5 runs - first inning (-132): There's a bit more juice on this than yesterday, as the no-run-first-inning (NRFI) hit for a third consecutive matchup between these teams.

But let's run it back. Texas ranks 17th in NRFI rate at 70.3%, while the Blue Jays are third (76.7%), per TeamRankings.

Eovaldi has pitched a scoreless first inning in 13 of his past 16 starts, and Gausman has done the same in six of his past seven.

George Springer over 0.5 runs (+100): It's difficult to back anybody on the Blue Jays' side right now, but we think they have what it takes to get to Eovaldi a bit. And with that in mind, Springer is our favourite option to score.

Despite not scoring in any of his past four games, Springer has still cleared this prop in 13 of his past 23. He has an .867 OPS in that span, reaching base in all but five games.

Springer's numbers against Eovaldi are mixed, but we like the fact that he's seen plenty of the right-hander. In 22 at-bats, Toronto's leadoff hitter has four singles and a home run.