Blue Jays vs Reds Prediction, Picks, Odds

Chris Bassitt toes the rubber in hopes of giving Toronto an edge in Cincinnati, but the Jays will need to give him some run support after losing 1-0 on Friday. Our betting picks aren't exactly bullish on that, and are targeting an early Under.

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The Cincinnati Reds will look to pick up their second straight win over the Toronto Blue Jays — and third overall — when the clubs meet at Great American Ball Park tonight.

Toronto has picked up just three victories in its last nine games due to a struggling offense that’s mustered just 3.00 runs per game over that span, but the Jays will be hopeful that starter Chris Bassitt can get them back into the win column.

Will the road favorites pay out or will Cincinnati keep Toronto’s offense quiet again? We’ll discuss further in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs Reds on Saturday, August 19.

Blue Jays vs Reds odds

Blue Jays vs Reds predictions

Friday’s game was a microcosm of Toronto’s recent struggles as the Jays managed just three hits in a 1-0 loss to the Reds, with Christian Encarnacion-Strand hitting the walk-off home run in the ninth to seal the win.

The Blue Jays have now been held to three runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 outings and have only scored more than four runs once over that span in an 11-4 victory over the Cubs last Sunday.

If you look at Toronto’s roster over the past week, you can see why the club has failed to drive in many runs. Daulton Varsho stands alone at the top with seven RBI in his last five games while no other batter has more than three in that span. 

The Jays should be getting a nice boost tonight, though, as shortstop Bo Bichette is expected to return after nearly three weeks off with a knee injury. Will that give the club enough of an offensive boost to beat their three-run average of late? 

If Reds starter Brandon Williamson has anything to say about it, probably not. The rookie has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts and is playing by far the best baseball of his MLB career so far after posting a 2.45 ERA in July.

Unless Bichette can ignite a stagnant Jays offense, I foresee another slow night offensively for Toronto and likely a lower-scoring game overall.

My best bet: First five innings Under 5.5 (-115 at SIA)

Blue Jays vs Reds same-game parlay

Blue Jays team total Under 5.5 (-125)

Whit Merrifield 2+ total bases (-120)

Matt McLain 2+ total bases (+120)

We’ll kick off tonight’s same-game parlay by betting on the Blue Jays to cash the Under on 5.5 runs — a bit of wiggle room above their recent offensive average and certainly a safe bet to get things going.

On top of that, we’ll look for a couple more strong performances from Whit Merrifield and Matt McLain. Merrifield, the Blue Jays second baseman, has a team-high 19 hits in August to go along with 28 total bases. He’s posted at least two total bases in five of his last nine outings coming into play. Meanwhile, McLain leads the Reds with 18 hits this month and has recorded multiple bases in three of his last five contests.

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Blue Jays vs Reds moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Jays are getting the nod from MLB odds as the road favorite despite their recent struggles, opening at -133 on the moneyline. While Toronto may be the slightly better team on paper, I think tonight presents a good opportunity to take the Reds as the dog at +122.

Cincinnati has won three of its last four contests, holding opponents to just 2.50 runs per game over that span — a trend that doesn’t bode well for Toronto’s bats. And while Chris Bassitt certainly has the edge in experience and pedigree over Williamson, the Blue Jays starter has been lit up for at least seven hits and four earned runs in two of his last three outings.

Tonight’s total opened at a lofty 10 runs and I think the Under will be the clear play here considering Toronto’s offensive output. The Reds have seen their total clear 10 runs just twice in their last 13 outings, while the Jays have seen it happen twice over their last 10.

The Under has cashed in five straight meetings between the two clubs while they haven’t combined for more than five runs in any of their last four clashes.

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Trend to know

The Under is 11-0 in Cincinnati’s last 11 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Reds

Blue Jays vs Reds game info

Starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt (11-6, 3.95 ERA): Bassitt was rocked for four hits and four earned runs over six innings in his last start against the Cubs on August 12, though he managed to avoid getting saddled with the loss. The right-hander has given up at least three earned runs in seven of his last 12 starts going back to mid-June.

Brandon Williamson (4-2, 4.33 ERA): After a rocky start to his MLB career, Williamson has settled in as a reliable arm for the Reds over the last couple of months. The southpaw held the Pirates to just two hits and one earned run over 5 2/3 innings on August 13 — his second straight start with just one earned run.