Blue Jays betting trends: Examining Toronto's postseason odds entering the final month

Inside The Star

31 August 2023

Blue Jays betting trends: Examining Toronto's postseason odds entering the final month

As summer fades to fall, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves out of a playoff spot.

Hope is not lost, though, as the Jays set to embark on the easiest three-series stretch imaginable — versus the Rockies, Athletics and Royals — to begin September. Toronto's current 2.5-game wild-card deficit could be erased in a blink if the club makes the most of this gift from the scheduling gods.

Blue Jays betting trends

Will the Jays make the playoffs?

Based on the current FanGraphs playoff odds, the answer to the question above would be, "Probably not."

The AL's six-team playoff allotment resembles a game of musical chairs in which there is one participant too many. The Orioles, Rays, Astros and Twins are all holding odds above 94.0%, while the Mariners aren't far behind at 86.6%.

Then there's the Rangers, whose fortunes have taken a tumble recently thanks to a 3-10 skid. Still, they're posted up with 69.7% odds ahead of the season's final month.

Sunken down in seventh are the Blue Jays, at 44.2%.

For what it's worth, the odds at NorthStar Bets are slightly more skewed toward a belief in Toronto. You can bet on the Blue Jays to make the playoffs at +115, which carries an implied probability of 46.5%.

The Rangers, meanwhile, have +270 odds to miss the postseason.

Before you give too much weight to FanGraphs' playoff odds, keep in mind how quickly — and drastically — they can shift. Since Aug. 15, the Rangers have fallen more than 25 percentage points.

When tracking playoff odds as a futures market, it can be helpful to scout a team's upcoming schedule. If a team has a particularly easy or difficult schedule coming up, you might want to make your move ahead of time.

And that leads us to our next topic.

The road ahead

Toronto's playoff odds could look a lot different by the end of next weekend, for better or worse. The Jays' next nine games are against three teams with the lowest win percentages in baseball:

@ Colorado (.368)
@ Oakland (.291)
vs. Kansas City (.304)

You can't let three draft lottery teams ruin your season, can you?

Six of those matchups are on the road, but Toronto handles itself just fine away from Rogers Centre. In fact, the Jays are 38-31 on the road this year, which is the seventh-best mark in MLB.

We expect Toronto to be a run line favourite in every game of this stretch, so it's worth noting the underdog ATS records of its opponents.

On a +1.5 line, the A's (63-68) and Royals (51-65) have the two worst ATS records in MLB, per TeamRankings. The Rockies (61-59) are sixth-worst in that regard.

In fairness, covering as a run line favourite is no small feat. Only five MLB teams are doing so above 50.0% of the time, and the Blue Jays (37-58) certainly aren't among them.

But Toronto will need to leave no doubt during this stretch of must-have games, so run line wagers will definitely be in play.

Oh, and here's a dramatic twist in the Jays' schedule: Immediately on the heels of these nine cupcake matchups, Toronto hosts Texas for four games at The Dome. Buckle up.

Blue Jays betting trends: Who's hot, who's not

If you're looking to make some prop bets on upcoming Blue Jays games, here are some names and trends to be mindful of.

Davis Schneider: We can't say enough positive things about Schneider's white-hot start as a big-leaguer. He's started 13 games, recording a run nine times, an RBI seven times, a hit 10 times and multiple bases eight times.

Better yet, Schneider has batted fifth or higher in each of the past six games. That's a product of Matt Chapman and Bo Bichette's injuries, but he's earned a regular spot in the lineup nonetheless.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: The frustrating power outage for Vlad Jr. continues, as he has just four extra-base hits in his past 17 games. Not exactly what you're looking for from a No. 3 hitter.

He's still worth avoiding/fading on his bases prop most nights, but don't abandon his markets completely. Guerrero has found his way on base in 22 of his past 24 games and has scored in seven of his past 10.

Kevin Gausman: Instinctively, you might assume that the AL strikeouts leader is a good bet to go over his strikeout prop most of the time. But lately, that hasn't been true.

Gausman, who often sees an over/under of 7.5 Ks, finished with seven or fewer strikeouts in four of his five August outings. In fairness, two of those starts came against teams that have the lowest and second-lowest K rates in baseball (Nationals, Guardians).

But Gausman also struggled to overpower a swing-happy Phillies club.