Blue Jays MLB odds for the second half: Player milestone markets on Bichette, Gausman and more

Inside The Star
 

The Toronto Blue Jays concluded the unofficial first half with a 50-41 record, good for third place in the powerhouse American League East.

As it stands today, they’re in possession of an AL wild-card spot but a number of teams are lurking right behind them. To get to the coveted 90-win mark, Toronto would have to play at a slightly better rate and go 40-31 from here on out.

Before the post-All-Star Game stretch starts, check out our Blue Jays MLB odds, which consist of markets on player milestones and team achievements.

Blue Jays MLB odds

MLB odds as of 3:00 p.m. ET on 07/11/23.

Blue Jays odds to make the postseason

There are two ways you can bet on this. The first is a straight-up bet on Toronto to get in. Because of its record and the fact the club is currently holding a playoff spot, the price for the Blue Jays to make the postseason is -225.

If you’re interested in fading them, not making the postseason comes at +175 odds.

FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays to go 39-32 the rest of the way and puts their chances of making the playoffs at 69.8%. That’s bang on with the implied probability of this -225 line (69.23%).

Toronto is talented, is likely to add at the deadline and we’re inclined to believe the club will get in for the third time in four years. A successful $100 bet would return a profit of $44.44.

Another way you can bet on Toronto to get in is by backing the Blue Jays plus three other AL East teams to make the playoffs. This way, while certainly more of a risk play, comes with a greater payday at plus-money odds (+120).

The Rays and Orioles have the two best records in the AL. FanGraphs gives Tampa the best chance of any AL team at making the playoffs (97.9%). Baltimore, which is five games up in the wild-card race, is at 75.9%.

If those three get in, then you would need one of the Yankees or Red Sox to punch their ticket. New York is one game out of the final wild-card spot and Boston is two back.

Blue Jays to win 95+ games (+225)

We just told you what FanGraphs projects but that obviously isn’t gospel. That said, while there’s a path to 95 wins, the Jays will have to severely outperform their first half.

In order to get to 95 — something the club has only done four times in franchise history and not since the back-to-back World Series years — the Blue Jays would have to go 45-26.

For context, the Jays went 48-23 in the 2015 second half after adding Troy Tulowitzki and David Price at the deadline.

FanGraphs has Toronto finishing in third place in the East with 89 wins.

Blue Jays MLB odds: Player milestones for 2023 season

A number of Blue Jays are enjoying strong individual performances, perhaps none more than three of their players who were named all-stars.

Toronto was well represented at this year’s ASG. Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, Jordan Romano, Home Run Derby champ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Whit Merrifield made the Midsummer Classic.

Gausman, Bichette and Romano have a very real chance at finishing the season as league leaders in key statistical categories. We have markets available for each of them.

Bichette to lead MLB in hits (+150)

Bichette has led the AL in hits in each of the past two seasons and is doing so again at the break. While that’s not enough for this bet to cash, it shows how elite of a hitter he is.

The star shortstop is hitting a career-high .317 and ESPN projects him to finish with 217 hits. That would obliterate his career-high mark of 191 set in 2021.

He’s four hits back of Luis Arraez for the MLB lead.

Gausman to lead MLB in Ks (+325)

Similar to Bichette, Gausman leads the AL in strikeouts but is second to the MLB leader, Spencer Strider.

Toronto’s ace has 153 punchouts to Strider’s 166. The next arm on the leaderboard after Gausman is Pablo Lopez with 138.

Gausman will almost surely finish with his third consecutive 200-plus strikeout season. And he has a strong chance to top his career high of 227 set in 2021.

ESPN projects Gausman to finish with 272 and Strider to get 302.

Strider’s career high for innings pitched is 131.2 set last year. Based on that, plus Atlanta running away with its division, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Braves work in extra rest days for Strider, paving the way for Gausman to supplant him.

Gausman finishing as the K leader is certainly possible and represents decent value as a result.

Romano to lead MLB in saves (+200)

Romano is tied with two others for the MLB lead in saves with 26.

Assuming good health in the second half, he should get every opportunity to eclipse the career-high 36 saves he set a season ago.

Toronto is going to have to fight for a playoff spot and Romano should be given plenty of work down the stretch as the Blue Jays’ ninth-inning man.

Romano is one of seven relievers with 21-plus saves.