Blue Jays vs. Twins picks and odds: Take Toronto on run line

The Toronto Blue Jays are limping into their upcoming series against the Minnesota Twins.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has lost seven of its last eight games, but Friday’s pitching advantage gives the team an edge entering this contest. With Kevin Gausman on the mound, we’re also eyeing the under.

MLB odds as of 9:13 a.m. ET on 05/26/23.

Blue Jays vs. Twins picks

Best Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+106)

It’s no secret that Toronto’s in the midst of a brutal slump. The cut-throat AL East standings offer a daily reminder of just how badly the team’s performing, with the Blue Jays staring up at everyone else despite boasting a respectable 26-25 record.

Minnesota’s recent struggles aren’t nearly as pronounced because, well, it plays in the AL Central. The Twins, however, have lost five of their last seven and are only holding a two-game lead over the Detroit Tigers.

They won’t like seeing Gausman on the mound, either. The Blue Jays righty has largely had his way with current Minnesota hitters, holding them to a .217 batting average across 115 at-bats.

Despite Toronto losing in each of Gausman’s last four starts, the veteran hurler has largely performed well. Outside of being tagged for eight runs against the Boston Red Sox, Gausman owns a 1.71 ERA across his other three starts.

After getting beat up by divisional opponents, expect the Blue Jays to rebound against the Twins.

Key stat: Toronto is 8-2 versus AL Central teams this season, covering this mark in seven of those outings.

Quick pick

Under 8.5 runs (-137): With Gausman mostly looking like his dominant self and a strong track record against these Minnesota bats, we’re not expecting much from the Twins.

Especially when you consider that they’re averaging just 3.25 runs per game across their last four contests.

While not posting Gausman-type numbers, Minnesota starter Louie Varland is pitching well also. He has a 3.12 ERA over his last three outings. Unsurprisingly, the under on this total has cashed in two of his starts during this stretch.

Both Toronto and Minnesota’s bullpens grade out respectably, too, ranking 14th and 10th respectively in ERA.