Guardians vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

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27 August 2023

Guardians vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, Odds

Between a steady Yusei Kikuchi and an improving Noah Syndergaard, Sunday's finale between the Blue Jays and Guardians may produce some better starting pitching than the 9.5-run total suggests. Read more in our MLB betting picks below.

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If the Toronto Blue Jays are going to make their move in the AL Wild Card race, the next 12 games are critical — and a win this afternoon in their rubber match against the Cleveland Guardians would be a helpful launchpad.

The Blue Jays snapped a three-game skid yesterday, powering to a much-needed 8-3 win behind five steady innings from Hyun Jin Ryu and Davis Schneider’s two-run homer. They start Sunday’s action 1.5 games outside the final Wild Card spot.

After scoring five runs on eight hits on Friday, the Cleveland bats were largely silenced in the second game of the series after Jose Ramirez’s early dinger — and Toronto comfortably won the battle of the bullpens.

Read on for our free MLB betting picks for Guardians vs. Blue Jays on August 27.

Guardians vs Blue Jays odds

Guardians vs Blue Jays predictions

While the Toronto Blue Jays’ offense clicked yesterday afternoon for eight runs on 11 hits (after managing a combined five runs across their prior three contests), their bats have been far less reliable than their stellar pitching.

Backed by a bullpen suddenly overflowing with proven options, the Toronto starters have picked up the slack — and I see Yusei Kikuchi serving up another overpowering performance today.

Kikuchi faced this Cleveland lineup back on August 8, allowing just one run on three hits through seven excellent innings. He walked just a single batter and struck out six but got no run support as the Blue Jays lost 1-0.

Noah Syndergaard takes the ball for the visitors and he recorded a win (just his second of the season) against Toronto in that same August series, despite allowing six hits.

It’s been a rollercoaster season for Thor but his last start — six solid innings in an 8-3 win over the Dodgers — was encouraging. Syndergaard can also take comfort from a 2-0 career record against the Jays with a 1.93 ERA.

That sets the stage for quality starts from both starters and, with the Blue Jays’ .249 average with runners in scoring position ranking in the bottom third of the league, it feels like a leap to expect a runfest in this series decider. I’m bumping the line up to 9.5 and taking the Under here.

My best bet: Under 9.5 (-156 at SIA)

Guardians vs Blue Jays same-game parlay

Under 9.5 (-156)

George Springer to record 2+ total bases (-125)

Blue Jays ML (-240)

There have been some promising signs in George Springer’s recent at-bats after clawing his way back from a prolonged slump. Springer homered on Friday night before adding another hit yesterday — and I’m backing him to have another productive afternoon.

I’ll also juice up the SGP odds with the Blue Jays moneyline. The hosts don’t have much margin for error heading into the final month of the season, and I like their bullpen edge to be a decisive factor.

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Guardians vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Blue Jays are heavy favorites to outlast the Guardians in this series decider, with a price north of -240 for the hosts. However, I foresee a tighter battle than those odds suggest — after all, the season series between these teams is tied at 3-3.

Toronto is 5-5 in its last 10 games but the visitors have been even shakier, losing seven of their past 10 contests and carrying a 28-36 road record.

The Blue Jays have trended towards the Under in a big way this season — the team total Under has cashed in for 69 of their last 116 games while the full-game Under has been the winning ticket in 35 of their past 60 outings at Rogers Centre.

As a playoff contender, there’s naturally been a bigger spotlight on Toronto’s scoring woes, but keep in mind that Cleveland’s bats have been held to three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.

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Trend to know

The Cleveland hitters have struggled on the road over the past month — and the Guardians have stayed Under the total in eight of their last 13 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Blue Jays

Guardians vs Blue Jays game info

Starting pitchers

Noah Syndergaard (2-6, 6.42 ERA): The Guardians have been patiently waiting for Syndergaard to rediscover his best stuff, but his outings can be wildly erratic. He was impressive against the Dodgers on Tuesday but was chased after 4 1/3 innings in his prior start against the Reds. This has been Thor’s best month so far, but he’s still been saddled with a 5.73 ERA in August.

Yusei Kikuchi (9-4, 3.52 ERA): Kikuchi’s 2023 turnaround continues to be a lifesaver for the Blue Jays and he’s lasted six innings or more in four of his last five starts. The lefty had a few rough moments in his last start — against a potent Orioles offense on Tuesday — but still racked up six Ks.