Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Red Sox (48-43) are the road after the All-Star break against the Chicago Cubs (42-47) fora 3-game series. First pitch Friday from Wrigley Field is at 8:05pm ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Cubs won 2-1 in 2022

The Red Sox have won 8 of their last 9 games and although they are 5th in the AL East, they are just 2 games back for the final Wild-Card spot. Boston is 22-21 on the road.

The Cubs entered the break by winning 2 of 3 games against the New York Yankees. Pitching has been their best asset. LHP Justin Steele and RHP Marcus Stroman were All-Star selections and RHP Kyle Hendricks is returning to form, but the offense needs to improve if Chicago wants to contend for the postseason. They’re 7 games back in the NL Central and 6 1/2 games out of the last Wild-Card spot.

Red Sox at Cubs projected starters

RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks

Bello (6-5, 3.04 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 80 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 4-2 win against the Texas Rangers on July 5.
• Allowed a .460 OPS in June after a.726 in May.

Hendricks (3-3, 3.04 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 53 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 5 K in a 7-4 road win at the New York Yankees Sunday
• Allows a .274 batting average at home; .186 on the road.

Red Sox at Cubs odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 a.m. ET.

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Red Sox at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Cubs 4

The Cubs win just 39.5% of the time as an underdog. Combine that with their 6-10 record as a home dog and its tough to pick them against a surging Red Sox team.

On top of that, the Red Sox rank 4th in batting average (.263) while the Cubs are 18th (.246).

BET RED SOX -120.

Despite being outside the playoffs, Boston is one of the 10 teams with a cover percentage above 52%. And on the road they are a scary team thanks to a 25-18 ATS record. And I want to add that Boston is 30-17 ATS after a win, while the Cubs are 20-21.

LEAN BOSTON -1.5 (+135).

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The Cubs are 3-0 toward the Under when given more than a day of rest, but its tough to get a read on these teams after such an extended break. Boston leans Over as a road favorite (6-5) while Chicago leans Under (6-9-1). With all of that I will PASS.

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