Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays (85-68) open a 3-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays (94-60) on Friday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rays lead 4-3

The Blue Jays lost 5-3 to the New York Yankees on Thursday as Toronto produced only 4 hits in its bid to complete the 3-game sweep. Toronto has won 5 of its last 6 games and is currently holding the 2nd Wild Card spot in the AL, 1/2 game ahead of the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners.

The Rays defeated the Los Angeles Angels 5-4 Thursday with 1B Yandy Diaz, 3B Isaac Paredes and OF Manuel Margot all recording multi-hit performances. Tampa Bay is 6-4 in its last 10 games and is 1 1/2 games back of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.

Blue Jays at Rays projected starters

RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

Bassitt (14-8, 3.78 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 185 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 4-3 home win over the Boston Red Sox Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 7-4, 4.64 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 43 ER) in 15 starts
• Career vs. Rays: 0-2, 2.45 ERA (22 IP, 6 ER) in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance

Glasnow (9-6, 3.53 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 through 109 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-0 road loss to the Orioles Saturday
• 2023 home stats: 4-2, 2.81 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 16 ER) in 9 starts
• Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-3, 6.88 ERA (34 IP, 26 ER) in 8 starts

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Blue Jays at Rays odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.

Blue Jays at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 5, Blue Jays 4

I’ll back the RAYS (-155) in this AL East matchup given they’re playing at home. While Toronto is a solid 44-34 on the road, Tampa Bay is 52-26 at home this season.

Even though the Blue Jays +1.5 (-165) should keep this game close (or even win outright), I’ll PASS on their run line at the current odds. If you are able to get Toronto’s spread at -160 odds or better, then I’d be more comfortable wagering on the run line.

OVER 7.5 (-110) is the pick in this divisional contest despite Bassitt and Glasnow being on the mound. Bassitt has given up 7 earned runs in his last 2 starts and Glasnow has surrendered 10 earned runs in his last 2 starts.

The Over is also 5-1-1 in the first 7 meetings between these clubs this season.