Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (62-43) begin a 3-game series against the Houston Astros (58-45) on Friday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 2-1

The Rays lost 7-1 to the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, their 8th loss in the last 10 games. Despite its torrid start to the season, Tampa Bay is now 1 1/2 games back of the Baltimore Orioles for 1st place in the AL East.

The Astros lost 13-5 to the Texas Rangers on Wednesday, snapping a 3-game winning streak. Houston has now closed the gap in the AL West race as it is 2 games behind the Texas Rangers atop the AL West.

Rays at Astros projected starters

LHP Shane McClanahan vs. RHP Cristian Javier

McClanahan (11-1, 2.89 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 106 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 6-5 home loss to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday.
• 2023 road stats: 6-1 in 10 starts with a 3.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 8.4 K/9 in 54 1/3 IP
• Career vs. Astros: 0-2 in 2 starts with a 7.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and 5.0 K/9 in 9 IP

Javier (7-2, 4.32 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 102 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 6 BB, 5 K in a 4-1 road loss against the Oakland Athletics on Saturday
• 2023 home stats: 4-1 in 8 starts with a 3.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9 in 42 IP
• Career vs. Rays: 2-0 in 3 starts with a 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 in 16 IP

Rays at Astros odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.

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Rays at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Rays 3

Considering how these teams have performed recently, I’ll back the ASTROS (-105) at home. McClanahan has been shaky in recent starts and Houston has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall.

Even though I have the Astros winning this game outright, I’ll PASS on their run line at the current odds (-175).

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UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the pick as McClanahan and Javier take the mound. The Rays have cooled off as they’ve scored fewer than 5 runs in 9 of their last 10 games. The Under is also 2-7-1 in the last 10 meetings overall.

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