Breeders’ Cup Classic fair odds: Long shots offering most value

I was looking forward to comparing the early Breeders’ Cup Classic wagering to my fair odds, but that exercise lost utility when Arabian Knight received a bet of what I estimate to be $50,000-$100,000 to skew his early odds to 1-5.

Arabian Knight, who was the 3-1 morning-line favorite for America's richest horse race, had 64 percent of the $181,898 win pool through Friday's wagering. Thankfully, we have two other pools to go on with exacta wagering set to resume Saturday and double wagering with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile complete.

Exacta-wise, Arabian Knight looks to have a bit more money on him in the win spot, but White Abarrio is the clear choice based on the double. In fact, Arabian Knight is not even the second choice in that double pool. That distinction goes to Japan invader and Grade 1 Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro.

Both no. 3 White Abarrio and no. 2 Zandon are around their fair odds. I’m not interested in betting them to win with no edge, but I do think there’s opportunity elsewhere. Incidentally, a couple other horses I could be talked into at the right price, no. 11 Bright Future and no. 13 Proxy, are also right around my fair odds. 

With this board, I’m going to worry less about who can win and more about who can outrun their odds at the highest price. Call it a dead heat, because I’m bullish on two horses who fit that criteria, no. 7 Clapton and no. 9 Señor Buscador.

I will play them strongly with nos. 2 and 3 and lighter with nos. 11 and 13. Basically, something like 7 and 9 with 2, 3, 7, 9, 11 and 13 and pressed with the deuce-trey while reversing the combos as well.