Breeders’ Cup keys and trends: Juvenile Turf Sprint 2023

Historyrepeats itself, a maxim that often holds true in Breeders' Cup races.

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint receivedgraded-stakes status in 2019 as a Grade 2 before being elevated to a Grade 1. It was previously a mainstay on theundercard since 2013, but was not held in 2015. We’ll review the trends since therace was granted graded status and see how this year’s contenders stackup against the historical trends.

First, some general guidance on handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint that will be run Friday, Nov. 3, at Santa Anita. Pick thepacesetter or a deep closer, toss in a couple long shots, and there's yourtrifecta.

Notes about Santa Anita

TheBreeders’ Cup has been hosted by Santa Anita 10 times since 1984, including seven in the last 16 years. The Juvenile Turf Sprint was last held at the Great Race Place in 2019.

SantaAnita’s turf course is close to a mile at seven furlongs, 132 feet. It offers the famed6 1/2-furlong, downhill course, which features the only right-hand turn on anAmerican track, a flat turf chute and the main oval.

The five-furlong Juvenile Turf Sprint will be contested on the flat.Expect an unusually long run-up. The backstretch turn is also unusually sharp,which can cause crowding on the inside in five-furlong races and force many runners to go wide.

HowSanta Anita’s surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup willindicate winning running styles. The turf has been firm all seven times thatSanta Anita has hosted.

Santa Anita 2019 recap

The Breeders' Cup was last contested at Santa Anita in 2019. Thethen-Grade 2 Juvenile Turf Sprint went off at 4:14 p.m. EDT as the fifth race on the Friday card.

The favorite Four Wheel Drive broke sharply from post 9 and immediatelyestablished the lead with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons.

Jose Ortiz and Chimney Rock also had good early speed and chased FourWheel Drive from about 1 1/2 lengths back. Chimney Rock finished well to capturesecond at odds of 13-1.

Third-place finisher Another Miracle raced in mid-pack early, about six lengths off Four Wheel Drive. With Manny Franco in the irons,Another Miracle raced on the inside, moved out in the stretch and split horsesmid-stretch to gain third.

So the winner and runner-up were the pacesetter and an early type, andthird place was nabbed by a runner coming from mid-pack, three or more lengthsoff the lead.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at a glance

Divisiondebut: 2018, previously held as a listed race on the undercard.

2023Breeders' Cup Challenge winners

NorfolkStakes (G1), England: Valiant Force.

PrixMorny (G1), France: Vandeek

FuturityStakes: Book’em Danno.

Becausethe Futurity came off the turf, Book’em Danno did not earn an automatic berthin the Juvenile Turf Sprint despite winning the challenge race.

Breeders'Cup Challenge previous results

NorfolkStakes: Two Norfolk winners competed in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Neither hitthe board.

PrixMorny: In 2020 the Wesley Ward-trained Campanelle competed in the Juvenile FilliesTurf and finished fourth. Last year Persian Force was runner-up in thePrix Morny and fourth in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

BelmontFuturity Stakes: The Futurity is back as a challenge race as of 2023. Inprevious years Futurity winners had a mixed record in the Juvenile Turf with Uncle Benny running second in 2018,. Four Wheel Drive doubled down by winning both in 2019, Second of July finished 12th in 2020, Slipstream sixth in the Juvenile Turf in 2021 and Nagirroc third last year. 

Prepraces

Fourof the five Juvenile Turf Sprint winners entered off a victory.

2022 Middle Park Stakes (G1), England: Mischief Magic finished fourth.

2021Prix de la Vallee d'Auge, France: Twilight Gleaming won.

2020Skidmore Stakes: Golden Pal won.

2019Belmont Futurity Stakes (G3): Four Wheel Drive won.

2018Hollywood Beach Stakes: Bulletin won.

Payouts

Averagewin payout: $9.49.

Lowest:$3.60, Golden Pal, 2020.

Highest:$15.84, Mischief Magic, 2022.

Howthe favorites fared

Last favorite to win: Golden Pal, 2020.

Last second choice to win: Twilight Gleaming, 2021.

The third betting choice never has won.

Winning post positions

Rail: One finished second and the others fifth, seventh, 10th and 11th.

Winning style determined by position at the half-mile pole 

Presser, within two lengths of the pace.

Mid-pack, 2 1/2 to four lengths behind the pacesetter.

Onewas undefeated in one prior start.

Onewas undefeated in two prior starts.

Onehad three prior starts.

Onehad four prior starts.

Onehad five prior starts.

SantaAnita 2019

Winner:Four Wheel Drive won the Futurity Stakes (G3).

Second-placefinisher: Chimney Rock was second in the Indian Summer Stakes.

Third-placefinisher: Another Miracle was fifth in the Futurity (G3).

Europe

Europe races are timed differently from those in the U.S. and Canada. They are timedfrom the gate in Europe, and track configurations vary widely.

Inthe last four years, Europeans had a 20: 1-2-2 record in the Juvenile TurfSprint.

Trainers

WesleyWard is known for conditioning precocious sprinters, and he is in his elementwith the Juvenile Turf Sprint with an overall 12: 3-2-1 record.

Payattention to any Charlie Appleby-conditioned entrant. With his only entry ever in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, he won last year’s edition with Mischief Magic.

Jockeys

IradOrtiz Jr. has paired with Wesley Ward for three victories. ToddPletcher and Javier Castellano teamed to win the inaugural Juvenile TurfSprint. Last year William Buick won one for the Europeans with the Charles Appleby-trainedMischief Magic.

This year’s top contenders

By Laurie Ross

Crimson Advocate’s Queen Mary(G2) victory caught my eye. John Velazquez put her into contention early, and GeorgeWeaver’s charge held off the second-place finisher Relief Rally by a nose.That was the only defeat for Relief Rally, who returned to win her next twostarts, including the Lowther Stakes (G2).

BigEvs is small but mighty. His only defeat was in the Nunthorpe (G1) as a 2-year-old against older horses. The MichaelAppleby trainee put up a good early fight but couldn’t keep up with the larger,older rivals. Think teenager against college-age kids. Big Evs returned to his ownage group and ran them off their feet in the Flying Childers Stakes (G2).

TigerBelle held on to win her last two starts by a neck and a nose.In the Prix d'Arenberg (G3) at PariLongchamp, She made all the pace and refusedto give in to the second-place finisher Dawn Charger, who was making herfirst start. Dawn Charger returned to win the six-furlong Prix Eclipse (G3) and place in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (G3). Conditioned by AdrianMcGuinness, Tiger Belle completed the five furlongs over soft ground in 55.75 seconds.

No Nay Mets captured 3 of 4 by a combined 12 1/4 lengths.The George Weaver trainee can be forgiven his ninth-place finish behind ValiantForce in the Norfolk Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot in his second start. The sonof No Nay Never owns some of the highest Brisnet Speed Ratings in the field.

By Ashley Tamulonis

This year’s likely favorite is Big Evs, trained by MichaelAppleby. The Blue Point colt enters off a victory in the five-furlong Flying Childers Stakes (G2) atDoncaster. He also has wins in the Windsor Castle Stakes and the Molecomb Stakes (G3). Big Evs is one of few Europe runners who likes to set the pace and will be involved early.

TheNyquist filly Crimson Advocatealso figuresto be prominent early and enters off a victory in the Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot. She’s undefeated in two turf starts and owns the best Brisnet Speed Rating in the field.

CrimsonAdvocate’s stablemate No Nay Mets, conditioned by George Weaver,was unsuccessful at Ascot, finishing ninth in the NorfolkStakes (G2), but he bounced back with consecutive victories back in the U.S. The 93Brisnet Speed Rating he earned in the Tyro is the second-highest speed figurein the field. Norfolk Stakes winner Valiant Force certainly deservesconsideration.

Thebrilliant filly Brightwork will make her turf debut after sufferingher first career defeat when stretching out in the Alcibiades (G1). Although she never has raced on the lawn, her breeding suggests she will take to thesurface change. Brightwork is expected to be cross-entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Another who caught my eye was John Sadler-trained Slider. The Jimmy Creedcolt won his turf debut last out in the Speakeasy at Santa Anita, givinghim the advantage of having a race over a course that can be tricky at the five-furlong distance.

Summary

Four of the last five Juvenile Turf Sprint winnerswere successful in their final preps and in stakes.

Four of the five employed a pacesetting style with the outlier being last year’s winner at Keeneland.

Two favorites won. The rest finished off theboard.

Irad Ortiz Jr. rode three of the five winners.

Three winners paid double-digits, including two as thesecond choice.