Breeders' Cup 2023: Keys and trends for unpredictable Juvenile
Anything can and does happen in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Twenty-two percent of the favorites won, and the average win payout in the last 23 years was $22.27. In fact, all but seven winners in that timeframe offered a double-digit return.
Breeders' Cup champions and the Triple Crown
A Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory doesn't automatically earn designation as the champion 2-year-old. Five winners were passed over for championship honors.
But of the 18 champs crowned, 10 were undefeated.
The Juvenile winner is promoted as the early favorite for the following year's Kentucky Derby, so let's see if the hype is warranted.
Twelve Juvenile winners never made it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate, proving how hard it is for 2-year-olds to stay at the top of the leaderboard as 3-year-olds. Last year’s Juvenile winner and champion 2-year-old Forte maintained his form over the winter and spring and was the deserving favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby. But a bruised hoof prevented him from competing in the Derby or Preakness, though he was a gallant second in the Belmont off a 10-week layoff.
Street Sense in 2005 and Nyquist in 2015 are the only two to have pulled off the Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double.
Juvenile winner Good Magic placed second in the Derby and is the only Juvenile winner to finish second or third.
Two Juvenile winners hit the board in the Preakness Stakes. Classic Empire was second in 2016, and Nyquist finished third.
2020 2-year-old champ Essential Quality placed fourth in the Derby and won the Belmont Stakes. He was the only Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to contest the Belmont Stakes in the last decade until Forte’s run this year.
Notes about Santa Anita
This will be the 11th time Santa Anita has hosted the Breeders’ Cup. Its dirt course has undergone a multitude of changes over the years, beginning with the great synthetic experiment. After the synthetic surface was replaced with traditional dirt, there were then efforts to restore everything to how it had been. There also was a huge resurfacing undertaking in 2019 when record rains led to a rash of injuries that closed the track for several weeks. When the track reopened, the main track was noticeably slower and deeper.
Santa Anita’s main track is a one-mile dirt oval with one of the shortest stretches in racing at 990 feet. Horses who are familiar with Santa Anita’s configuration generally carry an advantage over those shipping into the Southern California track for the first time. Because of the short stretch and the slowing final furlong, deep closers typically are at a big disadvantage.
How Santa Anita’s surfaces play in the weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup will indicate winning running styles. But thanks to the beautiful Southern California weather, the track is almost always labeled fast and playing to speed.
Santa Anita 2019 recap
Storm the Court made every pole a winning one, prevailing by a head at the wire. Runner-up Anneau d’Or pressed the pace from third, and third-place finisher Wrecking Crew sat in mid-pack in fourth.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile at a glance
1 1/16 miles
All stats are for the last 23 years, 2000-2022
Division debut: 1984
2022 Breeders' Cup challenge winners
American Pharoah Stakes (G1) –Muth
Champagne Stakes (G1) – Timberlake
Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) – Locked
Breeders' Cup challenge event previous results
Prep races:
16 Juvenile winners won their final prep.
5 – American Pharoah (G1), previously the Frontrunner & Norfolk4 – Champagne Stakes (G1)4 – Keeneland Breeders' Futurity (G1)2 – Kentucky Cup Juvenile (L)1 – Royal Lodge Stakes (G1)1 – Middle Park Stakes (G1)2 – Maiden special weightSanta Anita 2019
Winner Storm the Court was third in the American Pharoah Stakes.
Runner-up Anneau d’Or was a debut maiden winner.
Third-place finisher Wrecking Crew was second in the Del Mar Futurity.
Payouts
Average win payout: $22.27Lowest: $4.00 Game Winner, 2018Highest: $93.80 Storm the Court, 2019
Favorite
Last favorite to win: Corniche, 2021
Santa Anita 2019
Post position
Rail: The rail is supremely unlucky. Only two have won from post one since the Juvenile inception in 1984, and none have finished better than four since 2010.
Santa Anita 2019
Winning style, determined by position at the half-mile
Two pacesetters each finished second and third.
Pressers finished second nine times and third eight times.Santa Anita 2019
Pacesetters and pressers fared best as speed held.10 winners were undefeated.No Juvenile winner has finished worse than third in their final prep.
Trainers, 1984-2022
The more is better club
As with the Juvenile Fillies, Wayne Lukas leads the way with 41 starters, with a record of 5-3-6.Not far behind, Bob Baffert started 33 runners with a 5-5-1 record.Todd Pletcher had 25 starters with a 3-3-1 record.Doug O'Neill has done well with his 13 starters, with a 2-3-1 record.
Still looking for a victory
Steve Asmussen is 0-for-10 with a second and third.Ken McPeek is 0-for-9 but has one second-place finisher and four who completed the trifecta.
Jockeys
As with the Juvenile Fillies, John Velazquez has ridden 19 times but has a 1-1-4 record. He's had the most mounts of any jockey in Juvenile Fillies history.Mike Smith is hot on John's heels, with 17 starters and a 3-1-0 record. Smith is tied with the retired greats Jerry Bailey and Laffit Pincay Jr. for number of wins.Flavien Prat and Jose Ortiz have ridden four mounts each. Prat has a win and a second place, while Ortiz has a win and two thirds.
Summary
The Juvenile winner exited the American Pharoah Stakes five of the last 10 years. Three won the Keeneland Breeders' Futurity, one placed in the Champagne Stakes, and one was a maiden winner in their last start.The rail position has not completed the superfecta since 2010.Seven of the last 10 colts to prevail won their last start, and none placed worse than third. Five were undefeated entering the race.
Individual analysis will be available via Head-to-Head format after final entries are published.
