Breeders’ Cup tips and predictions: Day 1

Belfast Telegraph

03 November 2023

The Breeders’ Cup meeting holds a prominent position in the US racing calendar, and this weekend Santa Anita Park will be the centre of attention as America’s premier world championship of racing unfolds. The event features an exciting line-up of Grade 1 contests on both turf and dirt tracks. ITV Racing will be covering 14 races across the two evenings.

Our expert provides a comprehensive race-by-race guide to the action in California.

Breeders’ Cup day one tips

Enda McElhinney has recommendations for five races on day one of the Breeders’ Cup meeting. You can read the analysis behind his selections below.

Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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21.00 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f, Grade 1)

The European contingent will always be expected to thrive in the turf races but the Americans are no slouches. Big Evs heads the betting, with wins at Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and Doncaster’s St Leger Festival this season for Michael Appleby. His only low point was the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York taking on older horses. His best form is on soft going, however.

The Irish trio of Cherry Blossom for Aidan O’Brien, Tiger Belle for Ado McGuinness and each-way contender Givemethebeatboys for Jessica Harrington all have merit. The last-named is fancied to go well down in trip, but the home team could land this with CRIMSON ADVOCATE.

George Weaver’s filly showed some stunning mid-race speed in the Queen Mary at Ascot this summer and just about held off Relief Rally at the line. The runner-up has done nothing but frank that form since, and this Nyquist filly looks well placed to relish the test offered here under John Velazquez.

Selection: Crimson Advocate @ 9/2 with BetMGM

21.40 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m ½f, Grade 1)

The first of the Breeders’ Cup races on the dirt and it is tough to get away from short-price favourite TAMARA for Richard Mandella and veteran jockey Mike Smith. She has won both starts so far and overcame a bump leaving the starting gates in the Del Mar Debutante Stakes in September to sit a handy second early on before pushing the button and motoring clear for a stunning seven-length win in that Grade 1. This is tougher on paper but the extra distance should help and she could be the real deal.

Todd Pletcher’s Candied is a danger but perhaps more so could be Just F Y I for trainer Bill Mott. She won a Grade 1 at Belmont At The Big A on a wet track on her second start and, like the favourite, is 2-2 coming here.

Selection: Tamara @ 5/6 with BetMGM

22.20 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Grade 1)

Donnacha O’Brien’s Porta Fortuna had CARLA’S WAY behind when winning the Albany at Royal Ascot and comes here off the back of victory in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. It has been a longish season for her though and her old foe could turn it around now.

She was given a break and a wind op after that Ascot disappointment and finished second at Goodwood in August on testing ground. Next time, she easily won the Rockfel (7f, good to firm) at Newmarket and the pair that chased her home franked that form by finishing first and second in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile back at HQ next time. She has done less racing and that could be a big help.

The Brendan Walsh-trained Austere in the hands of Tyler Gaffalione is one member of the home team that should not be discounted at a juicy price.

Selection: Carla’s Way @ 3/1 with BetMGM

23.00 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Grade 1)

A top prize of $1,260,000 goes to the winner of the opening day feature race at Santa Anita and the front of the market is congested.

Bob Baffert has won this contest twice in the past five years and he saddles Prince Of Monaco, Wine Me Up and Muth in a three-handed attack. The last-named won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes over course and distance last month by four lengths from Wine Me Up and looks a big contender, as does Todd Pletcher’s Locked.

But preference goes to TIMBERLAKE for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. He moved well in behind what was a fast pace in the Champagne Stakes last time at Belmont At The Big A on a wet track. Frontrunner General Officer tried to slip the field heading into the home bend and, in the circumstances, this Into Mischief colt did well as he ran him down and ultimately won going away, with the pair clear. He should have more to come.

Selection: Timberlake @ 7/2 with BetMGM

23.40 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Grade 1)

Back to the turf for the day one finale. This race was introduced in 2007 and Europe has 11 wins. Five of those went to Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore and they team up now with Coventry Stakes winner River Tiber on what is his first attempt at a mile. He has come up shy in two Group 1s at 6f since that June triumph but the Wootton Bassett colt has a very fine chance now.

His stablemates Unquestionable for Frankie Dettori and MOUNTAIN BEAR for Dylan McMonagle are not here to make up the numbers. The latter won the same Dundalk race recently that Hit It A Bomb scored en route to winning this and, at double-figure odds, could be of some value.

The Americans won this in 2019 and 2020, and Michael McCarthy’s Endlessly – unbeaten in three – could be their best chance, especially if he can stay in the hunt until they turn for home.

Selection: Mountain Bear @ 12/1 with BetMGM