Brewers' offense remains a concern as playoffs approach

The Milwaukee Brewers are all but guaranteed to play in the postseason. With just under two weeks left to play in the regular season, the Brewers enter Tuesday with a six-game lead in the National League Central over the Chicago Cubs. Their playoff odds sit at 99.9%, according to FanGraphs.

The likelihood of a playoff berth is no longer a question, but whether Milwaukee can win in the postseason remains to be seen. For much of the season, poor offense has been a glaring weakness that cast doubt on the Brewers as a legitimate World Series contender. Their 90 wRC+ as a team ranks 24th in baseball.

The results at the plate have flipped in recent weeks. After seemingly bottoming out in a three-game sweep against the Dodgers on August 17, the Brewers have since posted a 105 wRC+. That’s hardly an elite offense, but it’s a few ticks above average, making it enough to support an elite run-prevention unit that leads baseball in WAR based on runs allowed per nine innings.

However, recent bouts of inconsistency have continued to follow the group. After putting up 12 runs against the Miami Marlins last Monday, the Brewers scored three runs the following night and were shut out the next. After they plated nine runs against the Washington Nationals on Saturday, the next two games saw struggling veterans Patrick Corbin and Adam Wainwright hold them to a combined one run.

Much of the inconsistency stems from the Brewers’ inability to drive the ball, an issue the team has yet to resolve.

Making loud contact and driving the ball over the fence is the most reliable way to score runs. It’s hard to defend against a home run or a line drive in the gap. Most of baseball’s top offenses boast above-average marks in some combination of exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. They elevate the ball and avoid hitting too many ground balls.

Milwaukee’s offense carries the third-highest ground ball rate in the sport (44.9%), and they rank 25th in hard hit rate (37.7%). When dividing the team’s offensive output around the Dodgers series, it becomes clear that these characteristics have not changed despite improved scoring. The Brewers are making more contact and experiencing more positive outcomes on balls in play, but they’re also hitting more ground balls and fewer line drives during this current stretch.

Brewers Quality of Plate Appearances in 2023

The Brewers have seen their wOBA increase despite not making more authoritative contact. According to Statcast, their expected outcomes based on plate discipline and quality of contact mirror those before mid-August. Put more plainly, the Brewers are not truly hitting much better than they did for most of the season.

Much of the disconnect stems from dramatically better fortune on ground balls. The club’s batting average on ground balls has increased from .227 through the Dodgers series to .285 since. However, their expected batting average on grounders is .238 in both stretches.

Throughout this run of improved scoring, the Bill Schroeders of the baseball world have credited the Brewers for producing runs by way of small ball without relying on home runs. Such sequences have regularly involved stringing together ground balls and soft contact for hits.

Since the Dodgers series, the Brewers have scored five or more runs 17 times and three or fewer runs nine times. They have posted a ground ball rate north of 45% in six of those low-scoring games and 11 of those high-scoring contests.

A game-by-game breakdown further affirms that while the Brewers have scored in some games by driving the ball—for example, the first two games of the Nationals series saw Carlos Santana and Mark Canha combine to hit four home runs—loud contact has not been a consistent force behind their offensive outbursts. Instead, their high-scoring games have often featured the same brand of hitting seen in their low-scoring contests.

Brewers Offense in High-Scoring Games Since 8/18

Brewers Offense in Low-Scoring Games Since 8/18

The Brewers’ offensive identity has solidified as a team since they installed Sal Frelick in center field and added Santana and Canha as trade deadline additions. They work counts (first in baseball in pitches per plate appearance) and put the ball in play at a respectable rate but do not make loud contact.

The approach and quality of at-bats have not varied wildly from day to day. Instead, the Brewers’ offensive identity has often directed their fate to baseball randomness.

This raises questions surrounding Milwaukee’s ability to score enough in a short postseason series. It’s certainly possible that the Brewers grind out plate appearances and find enough holes on batted balls to support their pitching staff, just as they have in many of their higher-scoring games since mid-August. Another plausible outcome features many of their ground balls turning into outs, making for quick innings and rally-killing double plays, just like what happened against Corbin and Wainwright.

The question come October will not be which version of the offense shows up. Unless the Brewers start driving the ball more consistently, their postseason fate could rest in the hands of the baseball gods.