Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
Tonight, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers will play Game 2 of their National League Wild Card series. Arizona delivered a surprising upset yesterday, winning 6-3 on the back of three home runs and 6.1 shutout innings from their bullpen. This evening, the Diamondbacks will send Zac Gallen to the hill, who will be opposed by Freddy Peralta of the Brewers. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Brewers as -130 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen hoping to send Arizona to the next round
Looking at the end-of-season numbers for Zac Gallen, it is somewhat difficult to believe that he was the favorite to win the National League Cy Young award for the majority of the campaign. When the dust settled, he ended with a 3.47 ERA, 4.16 xERA, and 3.27 FIP. He ranked worse than the league average qualified pitcher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. Gallen was particularly poor on the road this year, with a 4.15 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, and pedestrian strikeout-to-walk numbers. Though he carries name recognition into this matchup, his reputation outweighs the actual production that should be expected from him on Wednesday night.
Diamondbacks lineup looks to surprise again in Game 2
In Game 1, the Diamondbacks scored six runs and had nine hits against Corbin Burnes and the Brewers’ bullpen. Even more impressive, Arizona’s hitters were responsible for the six hardest-hit baseballs in yesterday’s contest – leaving no doubt which team had the better day at the plate.
However, it must be said that this was an extreme outlier performance for Arizona’s offense, judging by how they finished the regular season. In September, the Diamondbacks’ offense ranked 28th in OPS and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, they ranked 20th in line-drive rate and hit the 10th-most ground balls of any team in the league. Arizona ranked 22nd out of 30 teams in home runs during the regular season and dead-last in home runs across the last 30 days of the campaign. It is highly probable that yesterday was an exception to the rule rather than a sign of what is to come on Wednesday.
Arizona bullpen not positioned well for Wednesday
After Brandon Pfaadt allowed three earned runs and seven hits in the first 2.2 innings of Game 1, it appeared as though Milwaukee was going to win in a rout. However, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen completely shut the door from that point, tossing 6.1 scoreless frames to secure the victory. Nevertheless, it did not come without a cost – namely, Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel each throwing at least 23 pitches. Though both Thompson and Ginkel are likely to be made available if Arizona has a late lead, there are serious risks when it comes to using high-leverage relievers on zero days of rest after throwing nearly 30 pitches the day prior. Do not expect another masterpiece from this relief unit in Game 2.
Milwaukee Brewers
What to expect from Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta is undoubtedly erratic, but he is also capable of being the best starting pitcher in this game by a landslide. Following the All-Star break, Peralta made 13 starts – allowing two earned runs or less nine times. He also allowed at least four earned runs twice, though one of those outings was against the juggernaut Atlanta Braves offense. Peralta was at his best when pitching at home this season, with a 3.43 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, and a .182 opponent batting average. He should be able to take advantage of an extremely favorable matchup tonight to help his team even the series.
Can Milwaukee’s offense get the big hit in Game 2?
Last night, Milwaukee’s offense got off to a great start, scoring three runs in the first two innings against Brandon Pfaadt. After that, it was crickets. The team left 11 men on base and finished Game 1 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position. They had only two extra-base hits.
It is worth noting that the Brewers have not made a lot of quality contact in recent weeks heading into the playoffs. Milwaukee had the second-highest ground ball rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching in September and ranked dead-last in line-drive rate in that span. Overall, this group ranked 12th in OPS and 22nd in ISO.
There are reasons to like Milwaukee in this matchup, but their offense is not one of them.
Craig Counsell under fire after bullpen mismanagement in Game 1
It is bad enough to lose Game 1 of a three-game series, but it is even worse to lose that game and realize that the team’s best reliever, Devin Williams in this case, threw 31 meaningless pitches in the 9th inning – putting his availability and effectiveness in question for Game 2. The Brewers’ arm barn was solid down the stretch in the regular season, ranking 5th in FIP and 7th in WHIP, but Williams was a big part of that success. Having used six relief arms yesterday, this unit is not in ideal shape going into Wednesday with their season hanging in the balance.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks – Picks & Predictions
Arizona’s offense plated six runs in Game 1, but that was the first time since September 26 that the Diamondbacks have scored more than three runs in a ballgame. Tonight, Arizona has another tough test against Freddy Peralta, who has been dominant at home, and even more dominant overall during the second half of the season. Milwaukee’s bats are always difficult to trust, but they should be able to do enough to give their team the lead after five innings in Game 2. Everything that happens after that is in Craig Counsell’s hands, which is a spot worth avoiding.
PICK: Brewers Moneyline – First Five Innings (-135, Fanatics Sportsbook)
