Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Sportsbook Wire

16 August 2023

The Milwaukee Brewers (65-55) and Los Angeles Dodgers (72-46) meet Wednesday for the middle contest of a 3-game series. First pitch at Dodger Stadium is slated for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 3-1

Milwaukee had a 4-game win streak snapped in a 6-2 loss in Tuesday’s series lid-lifter. After downing the Dodgers 9-3 on May 8, the Brewers have lost 3 straight to the Dodgers and they’ve been outscored 20-5 along the way.

The Dodgers have been almost perfect in August. L.A.’s Tuesday triumph marked the club’s 9th in a row. The Dodgers are 13-1 with a plus-52 run differential since Aug. 1.

Brewers at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Wade Miley vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw

Miley (6-2, 2.90 ERA) is tabbed for his 16th start of the season. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 77 2/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 K in a 7-3 home loss to the Colorado Rockies Aug. 8
2023 road stats: 4-1, 3.07 ERA in 44 IP across 8 starts
Last 5 starts vs. Dodgers: 1-3, 5.33 ERA in 27 IP (2014-23)
Has benefited from a .247 batting average on balls in play
Last pitched against L.A. on May 10 and coughed up 7 ER in 5 IP (allowed 3 HR)

Kershaw (10-4, 2.51 ERA) is making his 18th start of the season. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 100 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K in 2-1 home win vs. Colorado Rockies Thursday
2023 Home stats: 4-1, 1.71 ERA in 42 IP across 7 starts
Last 5 starts vs. Brewers: 2-1, 3.04 ERA in 26 2/3 IP (2018-23)
Last faced Milwaukee May 10 and allowed 1 R in 7 IP (0 BB, 8 K)
Buoyed by a .265 BABIP and 85.3% left-on-base rate

Brewers at Dodgers odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:32 a.m. ET.

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Brewers at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Brewers 4

It’s tough to find value with a public team like the Dodgers on a 9-game win streak, but the Brewers figure to be overrated by their record and Los Angeles is a lean in this set.

Milwaukee has averaged 4.31 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.26 RPG. The Brewers have been fortunate to go 24-10 in 1-run games and there would likely be some value here save for the juice — but that percentage cuts too far into our own.

AVOID.

The Dodgers are 32-14 in games decided by 5-plus runs. They do not get embroiled in a lot of close games and that’s especially true of late.

Los Angeles has a much better offense. Dodger bats have good high-contact and hard-contact numbers against Miley.

Consider a partial-unit play on LOS ANGELES -1.5 (-105). Go in fully vested if the price improves.

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The Over is 67-45-6 in Dodger games. The mound match-up has some faulty actual-vs.-expected numbers — some luck around the margins — on both sides.

Consider a half-unit play on the OVER 8.5 (-105) with full-unit activation at +100 or better.

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