Reds-Brewers prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, July 24

For the past two months, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds have jostled back-and-forth for the NL Central lead. On Monday, they’ll start a pivotal series in deciding who ends the season with that crown when the Reds (55-46) travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers (55-45), who lead the division by a half-game. Righty Graham Ashcraft (5-7, 5.77 ERA) will get the start for Cincy, while Colin Rea (5-4, 4.64 ERA) will get the start for the Brewers. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m.

Milwaukee enters as the slight -115 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Reds are at -105. The total is set at 9.

Reds-Brewers picks: Monday, July 24

Injury report

Reds

Out: SP Hunter Greene (right hip pain), RP Casey Legumina (right shoulder pain), INF Kevin Newman (gastritis), SP Nick Lodolo (left tibia stress reaction)

Brewers

Out: 1B Rowdy Tellez (right forearm inflammation, fractured left finger), 3B Brian Anderson (back), SP Wade Miley (left elbow discomfort), SP Brandon Woodruff (right shoulder strain)

Starting pitchers

Graham Ashcraft vs. Colin Rea

Ashcraft has looked like a new pitcher since he missed two weeks with a left calf contusion last month, as he has a 1.82 ERA over his last four starts after having a 12.82 ERA over his eight starts from May 7 to June 28. His last time out, he allowed two runs over six innings with three strikeouts in a 3-2 win against the Giants.

Ashcraft has faced off against the Brewers twice this year to varying results. In his first start of the season against them (which was during that aforementioned rough patch), he allowed 10 earned runs in four innings, but he only allowed one run in six innings in his start against the Brewers two weeks ago.

Rea has been godsend for Milwaukee’s depleted rotation, as the 33-year-old has been able to hold his own while the team has dealt with injuries to Miley and Woodruff. While he’s 5-4 with a 4.64 ERA on the season, Rea has gone 5-1 with a 4.14 ERA over his last 54.1 innings. The righty has made two starts against the Reds this season: he allowed three runs on six hits in five innings at the beginning of June along with surrendering five runs in 4 2/3 innings two weeks ago.

Over/Under pick

This is a bit of a tough pick. Both teams have solid but streaky offenses and are starting pitchers who have unimpressive stats but have been pitching better as of late. This over has cleared in both of the starts that Rea has made against the Reds, and i’m thinking that trend continues today.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

I like the Brewers to pick up the win. With the pitching matchup being a bit of a tossup, I’m going with the Brewers’ veteran leadership and experience against Ashcraft.