Brewers-Reds prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, July 14

The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds will continue their dogfight atop the NL Central, kicking off MLB’s second half with a huge three-game series in Cincinnati this weekend. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. The Brewers will send ace Corbin Burnes (7-5, 3.94 ERA) to the mound, while the Reds counter with young righty Graham Ashcraft (4-6, 6.28).

This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Milwaukee the slightest of favorites at -115 and Cincy at -105. The run total is set at 9.5.

Brewers-Reds picks: Friday, July 14

Injury report

Brewers

Out: 1B Rowdy Tellez (forearm), OF Tyrone Taylor (elbow), SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder), SP/RP Aaron Ashby (shoulder), 1B/DH Darin Ruf (knee), OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder)

Reds

Out: SP Hunter Greene (hip), SP Nick Lodolo (leg)

Starting pitchers

Corbin Burnes vs. Graham Ashcraft

It’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for the 2021 NL Cy Young winner. Burnes certainly hasn’t been bad, but his strikeout rate has plummeted and his walk rate, line-drive rate and expected slugging percentage have all spiked. Each time we get flashes of the Burnes we’ve grown accustomed to, it feels like he takes another one or two steps back. He did close his first half on a high note, though, throwing seven innings of two-run ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates before holding this same Reds team to two runs on three hits in six innings of work last weekend.

Ashcraft got off to a nightmare start to 2023, but he’s turned it around a bit of late, posting consecutive quality starts and allowing a combined two runs over 12.2 innings against the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals. When the righty is commanding his cutter, he can churn out ground balls and have success. When he’s not, though — as has been too often the case this year — he doesn’t have much to fall back on.

Over/Under pick

The last time these two teams locked up with Burnes on the mound, it ended in a 7-3 Milwaukee win, and I’m backing the over again on Friday night. The action moves to Great American Ball Park, one of the most extreme offensive environments in the entire league — and one that’s particularly troublesome for Ashcraft, who doesn’t force many swings and misses and is instead relying on balls in play getting turned into outs. Cincy has cleared this total in six of their last eight home games, and I expect it to be seven of nine after tonight.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

This is really a toss-up: Milwaukee has the advantage on the mound with Burnes, but does that outweigh Cincy’s similar advantage at the plate? In true coin flip games, I’m inclined to take whichever side has even the slightest odds advantage — and with Ashcraft looking a bit better on the mound recently, I think he can do just enough against a middling Brewers lineup to let his offense carry the Reds to a win.