Brown vs. Yale Prediction, Preview, and Odds

The Ivy League Championship has No. 4 Brown taking on No. 2 Yale on Sunday afternoon, for a spot in the Big Dance. The Bears (13-17 SU, 8-6 Ivy) pulled off the big upset, taking down top-seeded Princeton, 90-81, as +10.5 underdogs. The Bulldogs (21-9 SU, 11-3 Ivy) rode a strong first half to a 69-57 victory over Cornell as -2.5 favorites in their semifinal matchup on Saturday. Tipoff from Levien Gymnasium in Manhattan is scheduled for noon EST.

Brown looking to bracket bust

The Bears were shredding the top-seed and defending champs in their semifinal matchup on Saturday, but then had to hold on for dear life down the stretch to earn a spot in their first Ivy title game. Brown had ballooned their lead to 22 points in the second half before the Tigers came roaring back and were within three points with under a minute to play. The Bears offense shot 55.9% in the win while holding Princeton to 41.1% shooting. The Bears managed not to let 18 turnovers hurt them too much and they gained a big advantage on the glass, outrebounding the Tigers, 41-32. Four Brown starters scored in double digits, with Kino Lilly Jr. dropping a team-high 27 with 10 assists. The junior guard shot 9-15 from the field and 6-8 from the line.

On the year, Brown’s offense is averaging 71.7 points per game and shooting 43.1% from the field and 34.3% from beyond the arc, with 8.2 three-pointers a game. Their defense is yielding 72.2 points a night while opponents shoot 44.8% and average 7.3 threes against them. The Bears lead the Ivy League with 37.3 rebounds per game and their 1.03 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 218 overall.

Yale back in title game again

The Bulldogs will play in a fourth straight Ivy League title game after staking themselves a 12-point lead at halftime, allowing them to cruise in the second half behind a stout defensive effort. They held Cornell to 25 points over the first 20 minutes and kept them to just 32.8% shooting. Yale gained their biggest advantage down low, outrebounding the Big Red, 44-34, and outscoring them in the paint, 32-18. The Bulldogs shot 47.3% overall and never trailed in the game. Danny Wolf went for a double-double in the win, scoring a team-high 19 points while grabbing 10 rebounds. He shot 8-13 from the field and recorded two of the team’s three blocks on the defensive end.

The Bulldogs are averaging 75.8 points per game this season, shooting 47.2% from the field and 34.9% from beyond the arc with 7.3 three-pointers each game. On the defensive side, they hold opponents to 67.1 points per game, the 48th-best mark in the country, and 41.8% shooting overall. Yale has gained a +4.5 rebound margin and a +1.7 turnover margin in their favor. Their 1.54 assist-to-turnover ratio is 21 best in the country.

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Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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They split their two-game regular season series, with the visiting winning SU and ATS each time out. The last meeting came just a week ago in the season finale, when the Bears took an 84-81 overtime victory as +11 underdogs. They are a steam roller right now and Yale has everything to be concerned about here. Brown has gone 7-0 SU over their last seven and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games. Along the way they have defeated every team in the conference. Yale does have the bodies to bang with the Bears down low, but the Bulldogs were smoke on the glass when they last met, grabbing only 26 rebounds. Yale even shot 52.5% and forced 13 turnovers out of Brown but still failed to walk away victorious. The stakes are as high as they get now though, so I’m not sure if the Bears have enough left in a tank that has been working overtime down the stretch. However, I do think this turns into an exciting championship game that comes down to the very end.

Take the Bears getting the points.

Prediction: Brown +8

Full-Game Total Pick

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In two meetings this season, these two had a combined average of 157.5 points per game, both games hitting over. There have been 30 games between the two teams that have hit the over this season. The Bears have averaged 87.7 points over their last three games, and they have scored at least 78 points in four of their last five games. They have also averaged 77 points against Yale this season. The Bulldogs in turn averaged 80.5 against the Bears this year and they have averaged 78.8 points per game over their last five. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over 136.5

A sportswriter for over a decade, Craig has covered everything from the little leagues to the big leagues. His work has been seen on MLB.com, ESPN.com and in the sports pages of the Boston Globe and Miami Herald, among others. Having had a front-row seat to all the action, he has been able to positively blend a little bit of the old and the new when it comes to analyzing the game and breaking it all down. Though longing for the days of the old football card that would be passed around in the halls of high school, Craig is happy to see the business flourishing and ready to put his own mark on things as he joins our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiners.