Bruins vs. Maple Leafs prop picks: Bet on Tavares to score

The Boston Bruins visit the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday before entering the NHL all-star break.

The pregame narrative: John Tavares is leading the way for Toronto offensively, making him a good pick to score a goal. The Maple Leafs captain is also a great wager to top his shot prop, too. Lastly, we’ll bet on Patrice Bergeron to net a point at a suddenly discounted price.

Odds as of 9:16 a.m. on 02/01/2023.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs prop picks

Best Bet: Tavares to score 1+ goal (+185)

Tavares is a great pick to tickle twine on Wednesday considering how well he’s playing lately.

The Maple Leafs forward leads the team in expected goals (2.68) and shots (15) over the last seven days, according to Natural Stat Trick. Both are solid indicators that he’s leading Toronto’s offensive attack with Auston Matthews out.

What’s even more impressive is his commanding edge over his teammates in scoring chances and high-danger chances. Tavares’ 19 scoring chances are eight more than the next closest Maple Leaf and his 16 high-danger chances are more than twice as many as second-placed Michael Bunting (7).

The Bruins are typically a tough matchup for opponents, but that hasn’t been the case recently.

Boston owns the 11th-worst expected goals against per 60 (3.63) and ranks a mediocre 15th (.898) in team save percentage across the last week.

Key stat: Tavares is third on the Maple Leafs in goals (21) this season.

Quick picks

Tavares over 3.5 shots (+130): In addition to picking Tavares to score, we’re also wagering he goes over his shot total. Although he only fired one shot on goal against the Washington Capitals on Sunday, his previous outings suggest he’s operating under a shoot-first mentality.

The talented centre took 22 shots in his three games before Sunday’s surprisingly quiet performance. He topped this mark in six of 11 games in January.

Bergeron to score 1+ point (-141): There’s a fair amount of juice to pay, but it’s rare to see Bergeron’s point prop hit this mark.

The Bruins captain is struggling with zero points in his last three outings, though there are reasons for optimism.

For starters, he’s still centring the team’s top line and averaging nearly 18 minutes (17:55) in time on ice. Secondly, he’s an important part of the squad’s power play. Even though the unit’s faltering, it can strike at any time with players like Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand powering the man advantage.