Maple Leafs vs. Islanders prop bets: Fade Nylander in tough matchup

The Toronto Maple Leafs face the New York Islanders on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: William Nylander’s going through a cold spell and New York doesn’t provide a get-right matchup. John Tavares isn’t directing many pucks on goal, leading us to take the under on his shot total. Lastly, we’re fading Anders Lee as his offensive woes continue.

NHL odds as of 10:06 a.m. on 03/21/2023.

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders prop bets

Best Bet: Nylander to not score 1+ point (+188)

We don’t like to kick a guy while he’s down, but that’s pretty much what this wager entails.

Playing alongside Sam Lafferty and Bobby McMann on the third line, Nylander’s struggling to produce. The talented winger is pointless in three consecutive contests and isn’t generating many quality looks.

Nylander’s two high-danger chances during this stretch are sixth on the Maple Leafs, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Considering his placement on the third line, Nylander’s best chance at producing is on the man advantage. Toronto’s power play won’t have an easy time operating against the Isles, however, as they own the ninth-best penalty kill (82.1%) in the NHL.

Potentially facing Ilya Sorokin is not helpful for a player fighting through a slump, as the Russian puck stopper has been excellent for New York.

Key stat: Sorokin has a .932 save percentage at home this season.

Quick picks

Tavares under 2.5 shots (+140): Head coach Sheldon Keefe continues to shuffle his lines, giving Tavares a bevy of incoming and outgoing linemates. These alterations could explain why the Maple Leafs’ captain isn’t putting many pucks on net.

Despite averaging 3.41 shots per game this year, he only has two shots on goal in his last four contests.

New York’s a fairly neutral matchup for opposing players, allowing the 15th-most shots per game (31.4).

Lee to not score 1+ point (-107): Continuing with the theme of betting against offence, we’re expecting another pointless performance from Lee. New York’s captain hasn’t found the stat sheet in three consecutive games.

He hasn’t been much of a threat in the offensive end, either, ranking sixth on the squad in expected goals (0.58) and tying for seventh in scoring chances (5) across the last seven days.

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