Bucks vs. Cavaliers prediction, odds, line, spread, time: 2024 NBA picks, Jan. 17 best bets by proven model
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks take a visit to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on Wednesday evening. The Bucks face the Cleveland Cavaliers in a Central Division clash in the national spotlight. Milwaukee is 28-12 overall and 9-8 on the road, while Cleveland is 23-15 overall and 14-8 at home. Milwaukee's injury report is clean for the game, with Jae Crowder (core muscle) set to return from a lengthy absence. Darius Garland (jaw), Evan Mobley (knee) and Ty Jerome (ankle) are out for the Cavaliers, with Caris LeVert (wrist) listed as questionable.
Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Cleveland. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Milwaukee as the 4-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 236.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Cavaliers odds. Before making any Cavaliers vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 42-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Cavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Cavs vs. Bucks:
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers spread: Bucks -4
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers over/under: 236.5 points
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers money line: Bucks -173, Cavaliers +145
- MIL: The Bucks are 8-9 against the spread in road games
- CLE: The Cavaliers are 10-10-1 against the spread in home games
- Bucks vs. Cavaliers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Bucks can cover
The Bucks won the first matchup against the Cavaliers this season and did it in Cleveland. Milwaukee shot 51.2% from the field and 41.4% from 3-point range in what became an eight-point win, and the Bucks also generated 28 free throw attempts in that game. Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard combined for 65 points in that matchup, and the Bucks also held the Cavaliers to fewer than 1.09 points per possession on defense. Cleveland shot just 6 of 43 from 3-point range in that matchup, and the Bucks are No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point percentage allowed (34%) over the full season.
Beyond the head-to-head example, the Bucks have elite offensive metrics in key categories. Milwaukee is No. 2 in the NBA in overall efficiency, scoring 121.1 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks have fantastic shooting efficiency, ranking in the top three of the league in field goal percentage (50.2%), 2-point percentage (58.7%) and 3-point percentage (38.3%). Milwaukee keeps pressure on opponents with 26.4 free throw attempts per game, and the Bucks also avoid mistakes, committing a turnover on fewer than 13% of offensive possessions. See which team to pick here.
Why the Cavaliers can cover
Cleveland has the clear advantage over Milwaukee when it comes to defensive impact. The Cavaliers are in the top five of the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up only 111.7 points per 100 possessions. Cleveland ranks in the top five of the league in opponent field goal percentage (45.9%) and opponent 2-point percentage (52.3%), and opponents are shooting only 35.6% from 3-point range against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is in the top three of the league in assists allowed (24.2 per game), and the Cavaliers are averaging 7.9 steals per contest.
From there, Milwaukee has clear defensive flaws, including the league's worst mark in turnover creation (11.8 per game) and a bottom-five ranking in steals (6.5 per game). On offense, Cleveland is clearly led by Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 30.1 points per game in the last eight outings and 28.1 points per game for the season. The Cavaliers are shooting 55.7% on 2-point attempts, and Cleveland is firmly in the top 10 of the league in offensive rebound rate (30.1%) and second-chance points (16.2 per game). See which team to pick here.
How to make Cavaliers vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
