Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: NFL Wild Card Round Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 14
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Steelers +385, Bills -500
- Spread: Steelers +10 (-115), Bills -10 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 35.5 (-105/-115)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The first round of the 2023-24 NFL postseason schedule includes an AFC showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills.
The Steelers finished the regular season at 10-7 after winning their final three games, including the last two on the road. After securing the third Wild Card spot, they enter the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the conference.
Meanwhile, the Bills leapfrogged the Miami Dolphins on the final day of the regular season to clinch their fourth straight division title and earn the No. 2 seed. They ended the season at 11-6 with a five-game winning streak.
On the futures board, Buffalo has the third-shortest Super Bowl odds at 13/2 behind the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh has the longest championship odds of the 14 playoff teams at 130/1.
Moneyline
This is the most lopsided matchup in the Wild Card Round, with the Bills listed as 5/1 home favorites on the moneyline.
Buffalo enters this game as perhaps the hottest team in football. The Bills are 5-0 since their bye week and ended the season on a high note with a huge 21-14 road win in Miami. They stole the AFC East title from the Dolphins and entered the playoffs with momentum.
Buffalo’s offense features one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Josh Allen. Allen led the NFL in total touchdowns with 44, racking up 29 through the air and 15 on the ground. His ability to evade pressure and fire throws all over the field makes him a nightmare for opposing defenses.
A two-time Pro Bowler with a pair of top-three MVP finishes, Allen is far better than Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph is a career backup who replaced struggling QB Kenny Pickett down the stretch, leading the Steelers to wins in all three of his starts.
Rudolph has success in the NFL (8-4-1 as a starter). However, he’s a game manager who lacks Allen’s playmaking. He’s a decent passer (career 63.5% completion rate, 19/11 TD/INT) but is not a threat on the ground, tallying just 97 career rushing yards and no touchdowns.
Rudolph has never appeared in a postseason game and has a 5-6 record on the road.
By comparison, Allen has made eight playoff starts and is 4-1 at home in those matchups.
Pittsburgh has a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Mike Tomlin, but Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game in seven years and is 3-8 in his last 11 postseason tilts.
On paper, the Bills are a much better team. They are elite on both sides of the ball, ranking top 10 in points and yardage on both offense and defense.
The Steelers are strong defensively, ranking sixth in points allowed despite yielding the 12th-most yards. However, their offense is terrible, ranking 28th in scoring and 25th in yardage.
Home-field advantage also figures to be a factor here. Buffalo is 7-1 at Highmark Stadium this year, with its lone loss coming on a last-second field goal to the Denver Broncos in Week 10.
Buffalo is a no-brainer on the moneyline, but the spread isn’t as clear-cut.
The Bills are favored by 10 points, a large number to lay for a postseason matchup.
Buffalo struggled against the spread this year (7-9-1). The Bills also don’t have a clear spread advantage at home, where they are 14-15-2 ATS since January 2021.
Five of Buffalo’s 11 wins this year came by double digits, but three were during the season’s first quarter. Six of the Bills’ last eight victories have been one-possession affairs.
Even during its recent hot streak, Buffalo hasn’t been blowing out opponents. The Bills only beat one team by double digits during their five-game winning streak and struggled to put away the mediocre Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots.
Pittsburgh has been tough against the spread, going 10-7 ATS. The Steelers have also played well on the road, going 5-3 away from home.
Only six of Pittsburgh’s 17 games were decided by 10-plus points. The Steelers’ defense helps them keep games close and prevents teams from pulling away.
Bottom line: Buffalo cannot be trusted to cover such a large spread, even at home against an inferior opponent. Both teams play in too many close games to expect a blowout.
The preferred spread play is the points with Pittsburgh.
The Over/Under opened at 35.5 points, reflecting the quality of both defenses.
The Bills have one of the best units in football, ranking fourth in points allowed and ninth in yards allowed. The Steelers give up a lot of yards but usually keep teams out of the end zone.
Combined, they allow 37.4 points per game. They’re also both 11-6 against the Under, which suggests a lower-scoring game.
Still, Buffalo is an offensive juggernaut. The Bills rank sixth in scoring and fourth in yardage, averaging 26.5 points per game.
Pittsburgh was a mess offensively before Rudolph took over, averaging just 15.9 points per game. The Steelers have performed better since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada and replacing Pickett with Rudolph, averaging 27 points and 384.7 total yards in Rudolph’s three starts.
Accordingly, four of Pittsburgh’s last five games have hit the Over. All four of those instances saw at least 39 total points.
Buffalo has also skewed toward the Over lately, hitting it in two of its last three matchups. The Bills have scored at least 21 points in eight straight games and have seen at least 37 total points in 10 of their last 11 games.
The cold weather in Buffalo could be a factor, but both offenses are playing too well to fade right now. The Over is the safer play.
Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images
