Buffalo Sabres' long-term bet on Dylan Cozens is worth making
What a birthday present for the Whitehorse Workhorse.
On Tuesday, the Buffalo Sabers signed Dylan Cozens to an eight-year contract that is expected to take effect next summer. His $7.1 million AAV will make him the team’s third-highest-paid forward, behind veteran Jeff Skinner ($9 million) and Tage Thompson, who signed his own $7,142 AAV contract in August. .
What a deal for all concerned.
The third-year center has quickly become one of the best young forwards in the game today. After recording 51 points in his first two seasons combined – which included a shortened 2020-21 campaign due to COVID-19 – the 21-year-old exploded with 43 points in 49 games, putting him on a 70 pace. points. Only Jack Hughes (109) and Tim Stutzle (93) are expected to get more among U-22 scorers this season, according to Elite Prospects.
We’re starting to see a trend here with the Sabers under general manager Kevyn Adams. In August, he signed Tage Thompson to a long-term contract worth just over $7 million per season. Adams then signed stay-at-home defender Mattias Samuelsson to a seven-year contract despite having just a handful of games under his belt.
So signing a third player to a long-term deal without a huge, established workload is risky, but Adams is willing to accept. The cost might be high right now, but the payoff might be extraordinary. He signed his top two centers for around $14 million, which could have been a lot more had they waited until this summer.
Cozens has been the anchor in the team’s second line, most recently with future stars Jack Quinn and John Jason Peterka. According to Money Puck, this line has a team-leading expected goal percentage of 56.1%, which is good for ninth of 26 lines in the league with at least 260 minutes together. Given Cozens is working with two rookies, it’s quite incredible and it speaks to his value to this young group of forwards.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Cozens is fourth on the Sabers with a 2.03 scoring-per-60 and fifth in shooting-per-60 8.65 at 5-for-5. He’s near the top in every other category, but also makes a lot of big works for his line in the process.
But while Cozens has made leaps and bounds as a third-year pro, there’s still significant projection here. He’s 21 and it’s hard to say he’s worth the cost right now. Long-term deals with players with a small sample size can be sketchy. But the signs are promising, the Sabers are on an upward trend, and Adams’ commitment to the team’s future speaks volumes. Chances are that if the two sides had decided on a bridge deal, Cozens’ value would have skyrocketed soon after. It’s a good change for one of the brightest young stars on the team and, if all goes well, the Sabers will have him until he turns 29.
With Quinn, Peterka, Owen Power and Peyton Krebs currently on entry-level deals, they’ll have a good chunk of the core squad for next season. Then comes the 2024-25 offseason, when Power, Krebs, Henrik Jokiharju and, above all, Rasmus Dahlin become available. Power and Dahlin will be expensive, while the other two will certainly be more reasonable. The team has projected a cap of $24.73 million for next season with no major contract to sign. And with the cap set to increase in the coming years, signing Dahlin and Power to expensive deals won’t cost too much.
And until then, Cozens’ deal could look like an absolute steal.
Cozens continues to show yearly improvements, and that’s all you can ask for. Is $7 million a big change for a guy who’s supposed to be a second line as long as Thompson is playing at the level he is at? Absolutely. But it’s not outrageous either. There’s no reason to believe he can’t score 80 points once his teammates catch him. And once the Sabers really start to hit the next level, Cozens will be heading for his prime.
After spending too long trying to build a competitive roster, the Sabers are finally on the buying side of the trade market. And with a palpable core and more notable names to come, Buffalo is aiming for a lengthy playoff run over the next few years. They’re not there yet, and signing Cozens to his new contract doesn’t change that. But it’s always good to see teams make the first move on a beneficial contract well in advance to avoid any distractions.
So it’s a win-win for everyone. Cozens gets his money and the Sabers lock in another crucial player for almost the rest of the 2020s. There’s still plenty of room to work with guys like Dahlin and Power and bring in more through trade or free agency. Add some young talent and the Sabers have the building blocks for a bright future.
Kevin Adams is betting on the future and he may have played his cards right with this deal.
