NHL Contract Grades: Sabres reward Dylan Cozens for breakout season, bet on potential

Sabressign center Dylan Cozens to a seven-year, $49.7 million extension ($7.1 million AAV)

Shayna Goldman: With the Dylan Cozens’ extension, two trends continue. The Sabres have once again extended a player ahead of their contract expiring — that’s the path they’ve taken with Tage Thompson and Mattias Sameulsson, previously. Second, teams are betting on their younger players sooner into their careers.

Generally speaking, that’s a good thing and a trend that should continue. Every single NHL transaction, and contract, carries a certain level of risk. That risk obviously grows when it’s a long-term commitment like a seven-year deal. But it can be a good risk to take when it’s for a young player, like soon-to-be 22-year-old Cozens who has a ton of potential. By betting on him now with this contract, the Sabres pay him through his prime, and focus on current and future production. That’s far more ideal for a team versus a seven-year deal to an aging star, who probably will be in decline for much of that contract. Even if a signing like this deal doesn’t work out, teams often have some wiggle room — moving a player in their early-to-mid 20s for a change of scenery can be a more plausible option, instead of having to attach too many assets to dump a player or deal with a buyout.

This contract’s a bit more than I expected for Cozens. While it makes sense considering Matt Boldy’s recent extension that kicks in post-ELC, and even what Josh Norris and Tim Stützle signed for in Ottawa, I did think there’d be more separation in AAV between Cozens and Tage Thompson.

That cap hit is slightly above what teams were paying for their second-best center last year, but not far off from the average market value of that position of $6.9 million. It’s also slightly above average but in the cap hit percentage range a team should be striving to keep their 2C in. Now the Sabres just need Cozens to consistently play up to the level of the average contender’s number two center throughout the life of this deal to stay cost-effective as they try to push back toward the playoffs.

So considering 1) his play and potential 2) the league trends around him 3) the Sabres’ cap situation, this is a good bet for Buffalo to make that can become even more team-friendly as he progresses. It helps add cost certainty throughout a lot of their playoff window, too which should be beneficial in the long term. He only has 169 NHL games of experience to his name, but the most recent play — 49 games this season — has been the most encouraging. At five-on-five, he’s able to drive play for his line and get the puck into the offensive end. As the season has progressed, he’s gotten better at turning those entries into shots and scoring chances. And usually, he’s’ doing that away from the team’s best. Cozens really only sees time with the team’s top forwards, Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and Alex Tuch, on the power play. So to invest this heavily in him, it certainly helps to see that he can be the pivotal player on his line instead of just a passenger benefiting from the players around him.

Contract grade: A-

DomLuszczyszyn: Cozens is having a phenomenal breakout campaign scoring at a 72-point pace and pacing at 2.2 wins by GSVA. That’s first-line center territory and it’s only his third season — this is probably just the beginning for the 2019 seventh pick.

It’s that thought that makes his extension an incredibly savvy one by the Sabres, one that has the potential to live on year-end best contracts list for years to come. Similar to the identical extension signed by Thompson last summer. In both cases, Buffalo bet on the breakout being a stepping stone to bigger things. It worked flawlessly for Thompson which granted the Sabres front office a lot of leeway for these types of big bets. There’s an even better chance that Cozens delivers given his pedigree.

Even if this is all Cozens ends up becoming — a low-end first-line center who can put up 70 points — it’s already a steal. With the cap likely exploding over the next few years, $7.1 million won’t be a whole lot. Right now there may be a bit of sticker shock given Cozens career numbers to date, but the expectations for that deal will drop dramatically over its lifetime. Right now that buys about 1.9 wins on the open market. By Year 7, with a salary cap north of $100 million, that could be as low as 1.4 wins. For Cozens to be worth it, he only needs to be a solid second-line center — and those days already feel over for him.

That gives Cozens some cushion to regress, something our projection model does expect with a very cautious forecast of the deal. It doesn’t quite buy that Cozens is a true 70-point or two-win player yet — not after 50 games.

That’s one reason to maybe have pause, but it’s more likely that the model is putting a bit too much stock in Cozens’ first two seasons where he was still finding his NHL footing. With very few red flags in his numbers this season, it feels much more likely that what we’re witnessing this season is a closer estimation of his true talent level, understanding that the model does struggle with handling big breakout seasons.

Cozens looks like the real deal with his ability to drive offense. If bigger, better things are coming for the almost 22-year-old, the Sabres will be laughing to the bank with this one.