Burnley vs Luton Odds & Picks

Covers

11 January 2024

The relegation battle takes center stage on Friday as Burnley hosts Luton in what may turn out to be one of those "six-point games". Can Burnley use home turf to get within touching distance of safety, or will Luton give themselves some breathing room?

On Friday we have a Premier League relegation scrap between Burnley and Luton at Turf Moor. The game was originally slated to take place on Monday but was moved to help Luton accommodate an FA Cup replay.

With three vital points on the line, this is set to be a fiercely fought game and one which both Burnley and Luton will be desperate to win.

This week's EPL soccer odds give the edge to Burnley, but what do our free soccer picks think?

Find out below as I break down Burnley vs Luton on Friday, January 11.

Burnley vs Luton best odds

EPL predictions for Burnley vs Luton

On Friday we’re going to see Burnley welcome a familiar face to Turf Moor in Luton. Both clubs were in the Championship last season, with Burnley winning the division and Luton coming up to the Premier League via the playoffs. Heading into this weekend both teams are in the relegation zone and both sets of fans will be deeply concerned that their team will be heading back to the Championship in May.

Both Burnley and Luton are being held off the top spot by the other promoted team Sheffield United who are rooted to the bottom on nine points, with Burnley two points better off in 19th and Luton in 18th on 15 points. Luton are within a point of Everton, who got docked 10-points, and just four off Brentford who are dropping like a stone and are in danger of getting sucked into this relegation battle.

The big question for us is what is the best bet for Friday’s game. I’ve studied the data and I’m convinced that Both Teams to Score is the best value bet at -125. These are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the Premier League but don’t let that put you off, this is the smart play for Burnley vs Luton.

Firstly, we need to talk about the player’s motivations going into this game. When the fixtures were announced before the season there’d be games that the team would consider unwinnable, against the likes of Man City, where they’d be overjoyed taking even a point from a game. Then there’d be games that they’d consider ‘must-win’. This is a must-win game for both teams. In a battle as close as this and with the threat of relegation looming they simply need to do everything to get three points against another team that they’d consider beatable.

Burnley are in the position they are because they haven’t curbed the attacking principles that they showed in the Championship and it’s left them open at the back. The same can’t be said for Luton who have impressed with their work rate but besides the likes of Ross Barkley and Andros Townsend, they lack real quality. In a combined 38 games we’ve seen these two teams concede 78 goals.

We’ve seen Burnley concede a goal in all but one of their Premier League games at Turf Moor this season and the one exception was against Sheffield United who are absolutely dreadful. We also need to remember that when these teams met in early October there were three goals, with Burnley winning 2-1.

Not only that but in recent weeks Luton have started scoring in away games, bagging goals in five of their past six away from home. In front of a big, fierce crowd I’m expecting a tough tackling game, that both teams know that they must win. Because of that, we’re going to see both teams go for broke trying to score, which should mean the chances of both teams to score landing increase a lot.

My best bet: Both teams to score — Yes (-125 at TonyBet)

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Burnley vs Luton same-game parlay

Both teams to score — YesRoss Barkley to score or assist

Both teams to receive a card

We’re starting with our best bet of the game which is for Both Teams to Score. It’s discussed in detail above but these are two teams who know that they simply must win here. Because of that we’re going to see both teams really focus on scoring and I’d imagine in the latter stages of the game we’ll see frantic play as teams push for goals.

Next, we’re going to back former England international Ross Barkley to either score or assist. He’s been Luton’s best player this season as he sits in the middle of the park and dictates play. He’s only scored two and assisted one but in a game of this importance, I believe we’re going to see him contribute to a goal. He’s been genuinely great in recent weeks with all of his goals or assists coming since December. He isn’t afraid to take on players and looks more assured in the Luton lineup now which he’s using to reward the team with brilliant performances.

Next, we’re going to back both teams receiving a card. Given the importance of this game in terms of both team’s chances of survival, I think it’s very, very likely that things get physical and we see both teams get at least one player booked. This game is a must-win and it’s hard to see the losing team escape relation if they don’t take three points at Turf Moor on Friday. With that in mind, we’re going to see cards.

Burnley vs Luton side and Over/Under analysis

Picking a winner for this one is hard. It’s a must-win game for both teams and they know the consequences of not picking up three points. If I was to be pushed I’d back Luton despite being away from home. They’ve been impressive over the past month or two and have pushed some very good teams close to shock defeats. Ross Barkley is performing at a really high level too and I think his quality could be the difference here, especially with Burnley missing their main goa threat in Lyle Foster.

You can get +270 on Luton which feels like far better value than -103 on Burnley, even though they are the home side. You can also play the draw at +255 but that feels like a result that wouldn’t really work for either team.

I’m backing Both Teams to Score at -125 which I think is real value but if you wanted to back Over 2.5 goals you could get -111, a marginally shorter price but it’s one which feels riskier to me.

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Burnley vs Luton game info

Burley vs Luton key injuries

Burnley: Luca Koleosho LW (Out), Hjalmar Ekdal CB (Out), Lyle Foster STR (Out), Charlie Taylor LB (Questionable), Jordan Beyer CB (Questionable).
Luton: Marvelous Nakamba CM (Out), Reece Burke CB (Out), Tom Lockyer CB (Out), Issa Kabore RB (Out), Dan Potts CB (Questionable), Carlton Morris FWR (Questionable).