Burnley vs Luton predictions, Premier League tips & odds

Burnley vs Luton predictions

Burnley and Luton Town face off in a crucial match at the bottom of the Premier League table on Friday night (7.45pm, Sky Sports Main Event).  

Both sides are sitting in the relegation zone at the half-way stage of the campaign, but the Hatters have surprised all who doubted them by outperforming their fellow promoted sides. 

Luton have taken 15 points from 19 games, already eclipsing the Premier League’s lowest points tally of 11 set by Derby in the 2007/2008 season that many tipped the Hatters to break. 

Rob Edwards and his team have performed admirably, even in difficult circumstances after Tom Lockyer’s cardiac arrest. 

Luton have the chance to break out of the relegation zone with a win at Turf Moor to heap pressure on their rivals at the bottom.

Burnley exited the FA Cup at the hands of Tottenham last time out to slip to their third defeat in a row. The result followed losses to Liverpool and Aston Villa in the league for Vincent Kompany’s men. 

The Clarets must win against Luton otherwise their survival bid will be in jeopardy. 

Football betting sites have acknowledged the importance of the game to Burnley, who are evens to win on home soil. Meanwhile, you can find a price of 3/1 for the Hatters to secure the three points on the road.  

It has all the classics of a relegation six-pointer, and here are our predictions using the best Premier League odds. 

Both teams to score 

Burnley need to force the issue to secure a vital win against Luton. If the Clarets can’t beat their relegation rivals, then their Premier League status is in huge peril. 

Kompany will know that and will likely deploy his side with an attacking set-up. Goals have been hard to come by for Burnley at Turf Moor. 

They’ve not scored in five of their 10 home games, and out of the 10 goals they have produced, five came in one match in their thrashing of Sheffield United. 

There were encouraging signs in a 3-2 defeat to Aston Villa as Lyle Foster and Zeki Amdouni found the back of the net. 

The Clarets need that clinical edge against the Hatters, and a whole lot more for the rest of the campaign. 

Luton produced a brilliant win in their last away game to defeat Sheffield United in a five-goal thriller. 

Edwards’ men have scored in five of their last six matches on the road, and although they’ve only registered two wins in that period, Luton still make their opponent’s work. 

We’re backing them to continue their recent scoring run at Burnley, while the hosts will also make their mark in the final third. 

Foster to be Burnley’s main man 

Burnley have been boosted by Foster’s omission from South Africa’s squad for the Africa Cup of Nations. Since returning to the fold after taking a leave of absence for mental health issues, Foster has looked in good touch in the final third. 

He found the net against Aston Villa and was always a threat playing on the shoulder of the last defender. Foster mustered three attempts at goal and placed two on target.  

With Foster playing through the middle, Burnley have carried a threat in their last four outings. He can look to capitalise on a Luton defence that has been suspect on the road.

Without Lockyer, Luton are sorely lacking experience in the middle of the backline. The Clarets need to ensure that they supply the 23-year-old as they did against Villa. 

The Hatters will not deploy the same high line, so the hosts will need to vary their passing in and around the final third. 

Foster has shown that he can take chances on offer, and he did find the net in the reverse fixture at Kenilworth Road in a 2-1 win for the Clarets.

After looking at betting apps, we’re backing him to score any time on Friday at odds of 12/5 with bet365. 

Low card count at Turf Moor? 

Burnley and Luton have been two of the best behaved teams in the Premier League this season in terms of yellow cards. The Clarets have accumulated 38 cautions, while the Hatters have 37 to their name.  

However, Vincent Kompany’s men have collected the most red cards in the league alongside Liverpool and Tottenham with four following Sander Berge’s dismissal against Villa last time out. 

Burnley don’t stray too often with their discipline, but when they do, it can result in disastrous consequences. The Hatters have kept 11 players on the field throughout the Premier League season, only one of two teams to avoid a red card.

Referee Tony Harrington has been assigned the game and has shown 31 yellow cards in seven games this term. Harrington’s one previous Premier League game was at Turf Moor in Burnley’s defeat to Manchester United in September. 

There were only three yellow cards shown on that occasion and the contest on Friday could follow the same theme. 

Betting apps have set the card line at 4.5 cards in the match, and we’re taking under 4.5 cards at 4/5 with bet365 with our final prediction. 

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Simon Sinclair is an experienced sports journalist, who has written for national publications for football, cricket, NFL and many more. He contributes tips on a wide range of sports for The Independent.