Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs picks and odds: Back Montreal in late-season game
The Montreal Canadiens visit the Toronto Maple Leafs for the final time this season.
The pregame narrative: Montreal is a massive underdog in this game and we’re looking to pick the squad in a contest that means very little to Toronto. We’re also taking the Habs to usurp their extremely low shot total while also backing the game total under.
NHL odds as of 10:18 a.m. on 04/08/2023.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs picks
Best Bet: Canadiens +2.5 (-143)
Neither team has anything meaningful left to play for this season, and therefore we’ll take the underdog catching multiple pucks.
Toronto will finish second in the Atlantic Division and knows it’ll be hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning in the playoffs. The team just locked up home-ice advantage in its most recent game against the Boston Bruins, and naturally, facing Montreal doesn’t quite provide the same spark.
The Canadiens have been playing for nothing for a while now, but this is a young group looking to learn as it closes out a rebuilding year. They’ve matched up well against the Maple Leafs this season, winning two of their three meetings.
It’s also hard to trust the Buds covering a spread like this given their recent form. They’ve won just five of their last 10 games and only two of those were by three or more.
Key stat: The Maple Leafs are 35-43-0 on the puck line this season, tying for the sixth-worst mark (-11.18 units) of any team, per Scores and Odds.
Quick picks
Canadiens over 24.5 shots on goal (-112): Montreal isn’t putting many pucks on goal as of late — just 23.3 per game over the squad’s last three — but this mark is still decently below the Habs’ season rate.
They’re averaging 27.4 per contest and have cleared this total in two of three meetings with Toronto.
The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, are ceding 29.2 shots per game this year, allowing their opponent to top this total in 14 of their last 15 contests.
Under 6.5 goals (-105): With neither offence scoring at an impressive rate, we’re rolling with the under. Montreal has scored three goals or fewer in four of the team’s last five games. Toronto, meanwhile, has done so in six of the squad’s last seven contests.
The under on this total has hit in back-to-back meetings between these rivals.
