Cardinals vs Giants Prediction, Picks, Odds

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26 April 2023

Cardinals vs Giants Prediction, Picks, Odds

Oddsmakers see tonight's game between the Cardinals and the Giants as a coin-flip, but our MLB betting picks believe there is great value on one side. Read on for our moneyline and Over/Under analysis.

The San Francisco Giants will try to extend a four-game winning streak as they host the St. Louis Cardinals in the third game of an early-week series on Wednesday.

The Giants (10-13) won 5-4 on Tuesday night after Blake Sabol hit a two-run, walk-off home run. The Cardinals (9-15) have now lost six of eight to slip into a tie for last place in the NL Central.

Tonight’s matchup is pegged as a toss-up, but I think there’s a clear edge here on one side. We’ll break it down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Giants on April 26.

Cardinals vs Giants odds

Cardinals vs Giants predictions

This is not how the Cardinals envisioned their season starting when they broke from Spring Training. Most pundits expected St. Louis to win the NL Central, but it now sits seven games back of the shocking Pittsburgh Pirates. FanGraphs now has the Cardinals as a slight underdog to make it to the postseason.

One of the biggest issues for the Cardinals has been starting pitching, at least on the backend of the rotation. While Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 3.81 ERA) and Jack Flaherty (2-2, 3.29 ERA) have provided stability, the rest of the rotation has been atrocious, pitching to a 6.50 ERA in 14 starts.

Among those offenders has been left-hander Steven Matz. In four starts, Matz is 0-3 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.636 WHIP. Matz spent most of his career as a capable — if not particularly consistent — starter with the Mets, but after one good year with the Toronto Blue Jays, he hasn’t replicated that form in St. Louis.

Matz pitched to a 5.25 ERA in limited opportunities with the Cardinals last season. And with his form deteriorating even more here in 2023, it’s reasonable to start asking if his days as a regular starting pitcher in the majors are numbered, at least unless he makes some significant changes.

Could Matz find some success against a San Francisco lineup that has struggled against southpaws this year? It will help a little, for sure, but the Giants should still find success against Matz when he inevitably has to face off against some of their righthanded batters. Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada, and Joey Bart should tee off on Matz, and the Giants have other right-handed options on the bench.

The Giants should have no such issues with their starter, Anthony DeSclafani. While the 33-year-old struggled in limited action last season, he excelled in 2021, going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA for the Giants in his last fully healthy season. He’s showing that same form so far in 2023, pitching to a 0.875 WHIP over 24 innings in his first four starts.

There are so many reasons to like the Giants in tonight’s game. They’re playing better than the Cardinals right now, they’re at home, and they have a favorable pitching matchup tonight. Yet nearly across the board, sportsbooks have this game as a toss-up, with -110 odds on both sides of the moneyline.

The only reason this makes even a little sense is the fact that Matz has been outstanding against left-handed batters, and the Giants normally throw out a lineup that’s a bit hefty on lefties. But San Francisco knows this as well, and will make lineup adjustments. We should also expect Matz’s numbers to regress a little bit, as he’s never had dramatic platoon splits in the past. The Giants are the clear pick tonight.

My best bet: Giants moneyline (-105 at WynnBET)

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Cardinals vs Giants moneyline analysis

The Cardinals opened tonight’s game as a slight favorite at many sites, with St. Louis -120 being a common opening number. As of noon on Wednesday, however, most sportsbooks have this game dead even, with -110 (or better at sites with reduced juice) on both sides. I’ve been able to find numbers as good as -104 on St. Louis or -105 on San Francisco.

Neither of these teams have performed well on the moneyline this year, though the Cardinals have been particularly poor, losing over 10 units in their first 24 games. The Giants are down about 4.5 units over their first 23 contests.

As I broke down above, I’m all over the Giants in tonight’s game. It’s hard to find a reason to think that this game should be considered a toss-up, outside of relying on a very shaky, small sample size that suggests Matz could find success against a San Francisco lineup that features a number of left-handed batters.

That’s asking a lot of Matz and the Cardinals tonight in a game that otherwise looks tilted in favor of the Giants. I made San Francisco my best bet above, and I’m also leaning towards taking the Giants on the run line as well. While most sites have the Cardinals -1.5, I’m more interested in San Francisco -1.5 at similar odds as an alternative line.

Cardinals vs Giants Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened at 8.5 runs, and the majority of books have stayed right on that number. However, you can also find a few sites that are now posting a flat nine runs as the Over/Under. Those sportsbooks that are still at 8.5 are juicing the Over, with the opposite being true if you’re betting at nine runs.

The Giants have been dead even against the total this year, with the Over going 11-11-1 in their games. The Cardinals have played slightly towards the Under, which is 13-10-1 over their first 24 contests.

I’ve spent a lot of words here talking about how the Giants are going to have their way with Matz. Again, his very small sample of dominance against left-handed batters this year isn’t nearly enough to think he can suddenly find success tonight.

However, it does make me wonder whether he’ll find some favorable innings that he can get through quickly to limit the damage. The San Francisco lineup will do well, but this may not be a two or three inning knockout situation.

DeSclafani should be able to handle the Cardinals lineup reasonably well, and that makes me skeptical that this will be a high-scoring affair. My lean on the total is towards the Under, especially at nine runs.

Cardinals vs Giants game info

Cardinals vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Steven Matz (0-3, 6.55 ERA): Once a promising young starter for the Mets, Matz is now trying to figure things out in St. Louis as he struggles for the second straight year with the Cardinals. Matz has had severe control issues this season, giving up 4.1 walks per nine innings, while also allowing four home runs in his first 22 innings. In his last outing, Matz allowed four runs on four hits over 5.1 innings against the Seattle Mariners last Friday.

Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 2.63 ERA): While DeSclafani struggled last season in just 19 innings of work, Giants fans came into 2023 hoping he would recapture his 2021 form, when he went 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA and threw two shutouts. So far, DeSclafani is doing just that. He is showing impeccable control, allowing an MLB-low 0.8 walks per nine innings this season. DeSclafani had his worst start of the season in his last try, giving up four runs in five innings in a loss to the Mets on April 21.