Giants-Reds prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, July 18

Two of the more surprising teams in the National League playoff picture face off tonight when the San Francisco Giants (52-41) face off against the Cincinnati Reds (50-44). The opener of their four-game series was delayed last night in the eighth inning and will be resumed today at 5:40 p.m., with the second game of the series (which we’re making the picks for) starting no earlier than 7:10 p.m. Anthony DeSclafani (4-8, 4.44 ERA) will get the start for the Giants in today’s regularly scheduled game, while Luke Weaver (2-2, 7.00 ERA) will take the bump for the Reds.

The Giants are -135 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Reds are +115. The total is set at 11.

Giants-Reds picks: Tuesday, July 18th

Injury report

Giants

Out: RP Luke Jackson (low back strain), RP John Brebbia (right lat strain), INF Thairo Estrada (left-hand fracture), OF Luis Gonzalez (lower back surgery), OF Heliot Ramos (right oblique strain), OF Mitch Haniger (right forearm strain)

Reds

Out: INF Kevin Newsman (gastritis), SP Hunter Greene (right hip pain), RP Casey Legumina (right shoulder pain), RP Tejay Antone (Tommy John surgery), SP Nick Lodolo (left tibia stress reaction)

Starting pitchers

Anthony DeSclafani vs. Luke Weaver

DeSclafani will be making his first start in his return from the injured list with right shoulder fatigue. His last start came on July 1 when he allowed three runs in three innings against the Mets, which led to the IL placement. He tallied a 2.13 ERA over his first six starts of the year but had a 6.02 ERA over his last 11 outings, which prompted the injured list placement. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in walk rate, but in the 45th percentile or worse in everything else.

Weaver enters tonight’s starts in the midst of one of his worst stretches of the season, as he has a 9.40 ERA in 29 2/3 innings (seven starts) since the start of June. Opponents are hitting .275 or better of his top three pitches (fastball, changeup and cutter), and he ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in expected ERA, expected slugging, expected batting average and whiff rate.

Over/Under pick

While I think there’ll be runs scored tonight, I still think 11 is a little high. The big wild card is which version of DeSclafani shows up: the one who stupefied batters over the first month, or the one who couldn’t stop throwing the ball over the plate in June. I’m banking on the former.

Pick: Under 11

Moneyline pick

The Reds have somehow gone 7-0 in Weaver’s last seven starts despite him boasting an 8.66 ERA over that timeframe. I think that streak ends tonight against a veteran Giants lineup.