Casey O'Neill vs Ariane Lipski Pick, 12/16/2023 Predictions UFC 296 Odds

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, December 16, 2023

Casey O'Neill will enter the Octagon against Ariane Lipski at UFC 296 on Saturday, December 16, 2023. The opener has O'Neill at -198 while Lipski is at +164.

Casey "King" O'Neill has a career mark of 9-1-0. The 26-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 69". Ariane "Queen of Violence" Lipski measures 5'6" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her career record of 16-8-0. The 29-year-old extends her reach 67". With respect to significant strikes, Casey O'Neill is connecting on 8.77 per min while Ariane Lipski is landing 3.94 significant strikes per minute. O'Neill lands 55% of the significant strikes she attempts and Lipski is connecting on 39%. Regarding defending in the cage, "King" absorbs 5.90 significant strikes per minute and "Queen of Violence" absorbs 4.20. O'Neill also curbs 58% of the significant strikes her opponents attempt while Lipski stops 51% of the strikes thrown her way.

In the category of takedowns, Casey O'Neill is the better grappler as she is able to score a takedown 1.96 times per 3 rds. O'Neill is scoring a takedown on 42% of her tries and is stopping 71% of all takedowns attempted by her opposition. Lipski is scoring a takedown on 50% of the takedowns she tries and is stuffing 78% of all takedowns attempted by her opposition. In terms of submissions, O'Neill is the more able fighter by going for 0.7 finishes per 15 min while Lipski looks to get 0.3 finishes per 3 rounds.

In her last appearance in the Octagon, Casey O'Neill faced Jennifer Maia and wound up losing the fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Maia landed 151 of 355 of the strikes she let go in total for this contest. O'Neill finished this fight landing 137 of 264 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Maia landed 145 of 349, giving her a percentage of 41%. She finished the fight landing 123 of 321 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, O'Neill landed 51% of her significant strikes by connecting on 137 of 264. Out of those significant strikes, she was 108 of 226 aimed at the head. 85% of the significant strikes connected on by Maia and 94% of them landed by O'Neill were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Ariane Lipski, she squared up with Melissa Gatto and ended up getting the win by split decision in round 3. Gatto ended up connecting on 82% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance while Lipski ended up landing 80% of the significant strikes she tried at a distance. Lipski ended up landing 44% of her significant strikes attempted by landing 66 of 149. She connected on 28 of 101 significant strikes to the head. Gatto landed 85 of 186 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, she ended up connecting on 39 of 117 directed at the head. When discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Gatto ended up connecting on 100 of 201 and Lipski was 81 of 166 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Leon Edwards takes on Colby Covington. Edwards steps into the Octagon holding a record of 21-3-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and stands 6'2". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 74". Covington stands in at 5'11" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 17-3-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 72". When it comes to grappling, Leon Edwards is able to score a takedown 1.26 times per 15 minutes while Colby Covington is averaging a takedown 4.05 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Edwards lands an average of 2.80 strikes per minute and is landing 53% of his attempted strikes. On the other side we have Colby Covington, who is landing 39% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 4.10 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Brandon Royval is set to enter the Octagon with Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja looks to add a win to his career record of 26-5-0. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 67". Royval measures 5'9" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a mark of 15-6-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 68". Regarding wrestling, Alexandre Pantoja is preventing 66% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedowns on 44% of his tries. Royval is taking his opponents down on 85% of his tries and defends against 39% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Concerning striking, Pantoja takes 3.81 strikes per minute while he is landing 4.41 strikes/minute. Royval, on the other side, absorbs 2.63 strikes/min and is dealing 3.45 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ariane Lipski (+164)

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