Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Pick, 11/11/2023 Predictions UFC 295 Odds

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

UFC 295

Madison Square Garden in New York City

Saturday, November 11, 2023

Sergei Pavlovich will battle Tom Aspinall at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The opening line has Pavlovich at -102 while Aspinall is priced at -118.

Sergei Pavlovich looks to add a win to his career total of 18-1-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 257 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 84". Tom Aspinall comes in at 6'5" and records a weight of 256 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 13-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 78". Regarding significant strikes, Sergei Pavlovich is landing 8.72 per min and Tom Aspinall is connecting on 7.65 significant strikes per min. Pavlovich is landing 49% of the significant strikes he attempts while Aspinall lands 66%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, Pavlovich absorbs 4.33 significant strikes per minute while Aspinall absorbs 2.90. Pavlovich also curbs 57% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Aspinall is able to stop 65% of the shots thrown.

In terms of takedowns, Sergei Pavlovich is not as efficient of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.40 times per 15 minutes. Pavlovich is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of his attempts and stopping 75% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Aspinall is taking his opponents to the mat on 85% of his takedown attempts and defending 85% of the attempts against him. When it comes to submissions, Pavlovich is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.5 submissions per 3 rounds while Aspinall looks to get 1.9 submissions per 15 min.

In his last bout, Sergei Pavlovich squared up with Curtis Blaydes and took home the win by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Blaydes ended up landing 14 of 56 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Pavlovich walked away from this fight having landed 36 of 85 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Blaydes ended up landing 14 of 56, which gave him a rate of 25%. He ended up landing 11 of 51 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Pavlovich ended up landing 42% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 36 of 85. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 30 of 78 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Blaydes and 88% of them connected on by Pavlovich were tallied at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Tom Aspinall, he went up against Marcin Tybura and ended up getting the victory via a punch to the head in round 1. Tybura ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Aspinall landed 53% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Aspinall ended up connecting on 72% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 13 of 18. He connected on 12 of 17 significant strikes to the head. Tybura landed 4 of 15 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 2 of 13 to the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Tybura ended up connecting on 4 of 15 and Aspinall landed 13 of 18 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

One more match to look forward to is when Matt Frevola squares up in the Octagon against Benoit Saint Denis. Frevola comes into this fight holding a mark of 11-3-1. The 33-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Saint Denis measures in at 5'11" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 12-1-0 (1 NC). The 27-year-old reaches 73". Regarding grappling, Matt Frevola gets his opposition to the mat 2.26 times per 3 rounds and Benoit Saint Denis takes his opponents down 4.72 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Frevola is connecting on 3.72 strikes/minute and connects on 41% out of all the strikes he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Benoit Saint Denis, who tags his opponent on 52% of his attempted strikes and is connecting on 5.59 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Pat Sabatini is set to square up in the Octagon with Diego Lopes. Lopes looks to add a win to his record of 22-6-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Sabatini measures in at 5'8" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 18-4-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 70". In the category of takedowns, Diego Lopes stops 33% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his attempts. Sabatini is finishing his takedown tries on 45% of his tries and is able to curb 42% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With regard to striking, Lopes takes 4.92 strikes per minute while he is landing 2.12 strikes/min. Sabatini, moreover, absorbs 1.35 strikes/minute and is connecting on 1.95 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Tom Aspinall (-118)

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