CCA Oaks fair odds: Wet Paint is a vulnerable favorite at Saratoga
The Coaching Club American Oaks could provide clarity in a 3-year-old filly division that lacks a clear leader. But the waters could be muddied further because the longest shot on the morning line is the likely value play of the sextet going 1 1/8 miles on the main track on Saturday at Saratoga.
One thing is for certain, No. 2 Wet Paint at 2-1 on the morning line is no bargain, considering my fair odds are 6-1. At absolute best, she is only as fast as anyone else in this group and maybe slower than the whole lot. She is a terrible bet to win, and I would not use her in the exacta either if she is favored.
No. 6 She's Lookin Lucky is the co-bottom choice on the line at 10-1 morning line with No. 3 Sacred Wish, but I greatly prefer She's Lookin Lucky. The biggest wrinkle is that she has speed just like the filly to her inside, No. 5 Hoosier Philly. The latter got the better of Wet Paint last out in the Monomoy Girl Stakes, and I expect the same here. But She's Lookin Lucky at a bicentergger price is even more attractive.
No. 4 Gambling Girl might get the setup considering, the two fillies to her outside have speed and No. 1 Southlawn from the rail is capable of early zip as well. Wet Paint and Gambling Girl both are closers, but Gambling Girl has shown an ability to be a little more tactical. Getting the job on her adversary in a short field could make a big difference.
If racing had its act together in regard to how to make the most of fixed-odds wagering, a head-to-head prop on these two likely would offer similar odds, and I'd definitely take a better price on Gambling Girl. As is, though, a win bet is better suited for She's Lookin Lucky.
Neither Southlawn nor Sacred Wish is impossible, and from a wagering perspective, if either is overlooked in the wagering, keying at least one of them to hit the tri could be an overlaid outcome.
