Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 odds, prediction: Jaylen Brown key to Boston victory
The Celtics were embarrassed in Game 3.
It was one of the worst playoff performances from a heavy NBA favorite in history.
Typically, you’d expect the Celtics to bounce back, but it’s fair to ask big, overarching questions about Boston.
For example: Are the Celtics broken?
I think they are, but perhaps not in the most obvious way.
Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 odds
Spread: Celtics +1.5 (-110) vs. Heat -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics (+100) vs. Heat (-120)
Total: Over 216 (-110) | Under 216 (-110)
Odds via Caesars
Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 prediction
(8:30 p.m. ET., TNT)
The market is betting on the Celtics having one last push in them.
The Action Network App has tracked smart and sharp money hitting the Celtics spread, which has moved 1.5 points in that direction.
Part of this is expected shooting variance.
The Heat have shot lights out from 3 during the series (and this entire playoff run), canning 47.8% of their attempts from downtown.
Conversely, the Celts have shot 29.2% from 3 during the ECF on 16 more 3-point attempts.
In the long run, water always finds its level.
So, if you’re a regression-based bettor, you’ve probably been fading the Heat and will continue to do so in Game 4.
If there is a drastic shift in shooting variance, the Celtics likely win this game.
However, even if the shots start falling, the C’s could still lose.
There are two main reasons why.
First, the coaching-level gap between Erik Spoelstra and Joe Mazzulla is monstrous.
The Celtics have struggled mightly in execution and situational awareness during this playoff run.
Second, the Heat’s stingy defense is a bad matchup for the Celtics.
Miami has several aggressive ball-pressure perimeter defenders (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry) that the Heat used to finish fifth in steals per game during the regular season.
Meanwhile, it’s fair to question the Celtics’ ball-handling abilities.
The numbers didn’t bear out in the regular season (13.4 turnovers per game), but those stats never matched the eye test.
That is, with one marked exception: Against the Heat.
In four regular-season matchups with Miami, the Celtics turned the ball over an absurd 73 times (18.3 per game).
The Heat’s pesky defenders obliterated Boston’s questionable ball-handlers during the regular season, and they’re doing it again during the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Celtics had 15 in each game during this series.
So, to circle back around, I’m unsure which side to bet on in Game 4.
That said, I expect the Celtics’ turnover issues to continue either way.
Specifically, I think turnovers will haunt the Celtics’ shakiest primary ball-handler, Jaylen Brown.
Brown has had a complete meltdown during this series, but that was almost predictable.
He already had ball-handling issues (2.9 turnovers per game in the regular season), then hurt his hand shortly before facing off against one of the best ball-pressure defenses in the NBA.
Brown has 10 assists to 11 turnovers during the ECF. He’s averaging 3.3 turnovers per game during his 16 playoff games.
I don’t expect these struggles to stop.
And luckily for us, there’s a betting market for this.
You can currently bet over 2.5 turnovers for Brown at (-155).
Betting on the NBA?
Given his struggles in this area, Brown has eclipsed this number in 11 of 16 playoff games, good for a 69% hit rate that implies -220 odds to the over.
Moreover, Brown has posted three or more turnovers in nine of his past 11 games against the Heat dating back to last season, racking up 45 in total (4.1 per game).
Again, it’s hard to project which side will win Game 4, but it’s not hard to see that Brown cannot handle the basketball against Miami.
Celtics vs. Lakers Game 4 pick
Jaylen Brown over 2.5 turnovers (-150 at BetMGM)
