Heat vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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27 October 2023

Heat vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Celtics lost to the Heat in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, but Jayson Tatum could hardly be blamed. Our NBA betting picks believe he'll pick up where he left off when Miami visits TD Garden tonight.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Celtics welcome the Miami Heat to TD Garden tonight in a rematch of the 2023 Eastern Conference Final — a series Miami won in seven games. Boston will look to get its revenge as the sizable home favorite in the NBA odds, led by Jayson Tatum and new addition Kristaps Porzingis, who both scored over 30 points in their season opener.

Will a revamped Celtics squad be able to defend home court against a hard-working Heat team? We’ll discuss in our Heat vs. Celtics NBA picks and predictions for Friday, October 27.

Heat vs Celtics odds

Heat vs Celtics predictions

Jayson Tatum is known for his hot starts, and Wednesday was no exception as he put up 34 points against the Knicks to lead the Celtics to victory in their season opener. The small forward shot just under 60% from the field on 22 attempts while adding 11 rebounds for a double-double.

Kristaps Porzingis was also excellent in his Celtics debut, scoring 30 points while shooting 5-for-9 from three, but we’ll focus on Tatum in tonight’s best bet as we look for him to cash the Over on 26.5 points.

Tatum has historically done well against the Heat — he averaged 30.8 vs. Miami in two regular-season meetings last year and added 25.3 points per game during their playoff series, scoring 30 or more points in four of those contests.

The Heat are certainly an elite defensive team, ranking second in points allowed per game last season (109), but they didn’t look great in their opener as they barely eked out a 103-102 win over the lowly Pistons, who finished as the NBA’s worst team with just 17 wins in 2022-23.

Miami was especially susceptible from long range in that contest, giving up 32 three-point attempts. Tatum is a solid three-point shooter, averaging 37.5% from beyond the arc in his career, and should be able to capitalize if the Heat give the C’s free rein from downtown.

My best bet: Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)

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Heat vs Celtics same-game parlay

Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 points

Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3s made

Under 217

Tatum will continue to take the spotlight as we look for the C’s star to hit the Over on 26.5 points and 2.5 3-pointers made in our NBA player props.

Tatum is has averaged about three makes from long range per game over his last five seasons, while he fired a career-high 9.6 three-point attempts per game last year. If the Heat are going to give the Celtics space on the perimeter like they did against the Knicks, Tatum should be able to get his usual three or four makes.

We’ll round out the parlay by taking the Under on 217 points, which seems like a relatively safe play given how these teams match up. The Under is 4-0 in their last four meetings, and we know the Heat will likely try to slow the pace down to keep a talented Celtics team within reach.

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Heat vs Celtics and Over/Under analysis

Boston opened as the clear home favorite with a 7.5-point edge, though that number inched up as high as 8.5 by Friday morning. While Miami does play Boston well, I think the Celtics are too good to deny in this matchup.

The Heat’s stars were not overly impressive in their opener as Bam Adebayo led the team with just 22 points while Jimmy Butler (19 points) and Tyler Herro (16 points) had quiet nights. The Celtics were led by the aforementioned Tatum and Porzingis, while Jaylen Brown had just 11 points on 11 field-goal attempts — well under the 20.6 attempts per game he averaged last season.

That was certainly a blip on the radar for Brown, who should bounce back with a much better performance tonight, though I’m not as confident in predicting the same for any of Miami’s top players. That said, I think the Celtics simply have too much firepower for the Heat to contend with, and barring a rare off night from both Tatum and Brown, we should see the hosts take this one comfortably.

Tonight’s total opened at 217 points and I like the Under mostly due to what we’ve seen in prior head-to-head meetings.

The Celtics have managed to score more than 110 points just once in their last nine games against the Heat, so I expect this one to be on the lower-scoring side as Miami clamps down defensively. I also don’t see the Heat having enough offense to run up the score themselves against a solid C’s defense, so naturally the Under makes sense.