Chargers vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 9

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03 November 2023

Chargers vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 9

This Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the New York Jets holds potential tiebreaker implications in the AFC playoff race, and we offer our top Chargers vs. Jets prediction backed by the best NFL odds.

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) brought their two-game losing streak to a halt with a dominant 30-13 home victory in a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Chicago Bears. This win marked a turning point in their season, as it was their first double-digit victory with a significant 17-point margin. Notably, the Chargers transitioned from a streak of five consecutive one-possession games at the beginning of the season to consecutive contests with decisive wins by 14 or more points, showcasing their ability to secure more comfortable victories.

The New York Jets, holding a 4-3 record, have showcased a formidable defensive performance, allowing their opponents just 15 points per game during a notable three-game winning streak. Of significance, the Jets have played their third prime-time home game, securing a victory against the Buffalo Bills and experiencing a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in their two previous prime-time matchups, highlighting their presence on the national stage.

As part of our NFL prediction for Week 9 and NFL best bets, here is our best Chargers vs. Jets prediction for Monday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chargers vs. Jets prediction: Monday Night Football

Chargers ML (-155 via BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Going from facing the Bears' defense to the Jets' defense is night and day, but that does not make what Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert accomplished last week any less impressive. Herbert ended the first quarter with a 151.7 quarterback rating (158.3 is perfect), and had just four incompletions to three touchdowns in the first half. When he started the game 11-for-11 passing, Next Gen Stats calculated his percentage to complete all those passes at 5.8%.

Herbert will be under much more pressure than he was against Chicago, but given his ability to throw short and get the ball out quickly, that should negate the Jets pass rush. Herbert completed 27-of-30 passes under 10 air yards for 222 yards and three touchdowns (+8.2% CPOE) against the Bears. The 4.9 air yards per attempt were his second-lowest, but he turned that into a season-high 60% success rate per Next Gen Stats.

Herbert is 22-6 (.785 win percentage) when his defense allows fewer than 28 points. Considering New York has scored 23-plus points just once this year, we expect Los Angeles to find success on the road this week. In addition, the Jets are coming off a game against the Giants where they punted on 11 of their 17 possessions while rushing for just 58 yards and going 2-for-15 on third down. Thus, we do not expect New York to take advantage of a Chargers defense that entered last week ranked 31st or worse in yards per game (406.8), passing yards per game (310), passing yards per play (8.1), fourth-down percentage (70%), and third-down conversions in the fourth quarter (50%).

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Chargers vs. Jets best odds

BetMGM, DraftKings, bet365 (-155)

There is nearly a $10 difference between those sportsbooks on the low and high end of the moneyline odds for this Monday Night Football tilt, so bettors have their choice of DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 for the best value. We would only back the Chargers on the point spread if they moved off the key number of three to -2.5 or lower, especially with how often they are involved in one-possession games.

Chargers vs. Jets odds for Monday Night Football

Our best sports betting apps are in unison, with the Chargers being three-point road favorites, with some shops charging extra (DraftKings is at -112, FanDuel is at -115) to back Los Angeles. The Chargers were either -2 or -2.5 heading into late Monday morning, but by Monday afternoon, the line had risen to -3 at all shops, and there has been no movement since. The Jets are getting slightly more of the point spread wagers (55%) despite New York being 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an overtime contest.

While our best sports betting sites offer the same 41.5-point total, DraftKings (-112) and FanDuel (-115) charge more in juice to back the Under. All line movement has gone towards the Under, though DraftKings initially saw its total rise from 42 to 42.5 on Monday morning before settling back down at 41.5. The Under has received 54% of the early wagers, and it has cashed in each of the Chargers’ last five games.