Chargers vs. Raiders Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 15: TNF

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11 December 2023

Chargers vs. Raiders Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 15: TNF

The Las Vegas Raiders play host to the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West clash on Thursday Night Football to open the Week 15 slate, and we have you covered with our Chargers vs. Raiders predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Los Angeles Chargers (5-8) are trending down after losing four of their last five games. Things won't get any easier on Thursday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders (5-8) in a battle of backup QBs.

The Chargers fell to the Broncos last week in a 24-7 home loss, their third straight defeat at home for the longest such streak under coach Brandon Staley. Meanwhile, Las Vegas dropped a 3-0 rock fight against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFL's lowest-scoring game since 2007 - the first home shutout for the Raiders since 2011.

Here is our best Chargers vs. Raiders prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chargers vs. Raiders prediction

Both the Chargers and Raiders are among the most profitable Under teams this season, with each cashing the Under in 10 of 13 games. We were tempted to back the Under again, especially with Justin Herbert not under center for Los Angeles after suffering a season-ending injury.

However, we do not trust Unders with Brandon Staley on the sidelines as he is known to gamble on fourth downs anywhere on the field. Instead, we are backing the Raiders and expect a lackluster performance from the Chargers, who may be playing for a lame duck head coach at the moment.

Las Vegas entered last week ranked in the top 13 in defensive DVOA over the previous five weeks, including a top 10 ranking against the pass. However, whatever concerns bettors may have in the Raiders run defense should be mitigated by watching the Chargers' porous offensive line play, as they ran the ball for just 76 yards last week and have the worst run-blocking grade in the league.

Los Angeles also allowed six sacks to six different players, which was a big reason it went 0-for-12 on third down. Las Vegas may be averaging just 10 points per game during its three-game losing streak, but its players are fighting harder under interim head coach Antonio Pierce (2-3 in his five games) than the Chargers are under Staley.

Since moving to Las Vegas, the Raiders are 17-15 ATS at home as opposed to 13-19 ATS in road or neutral-site games. Los Angeles is .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 straight seasons, but is 3-3 ATS in six road games this year, and we expect it to fall to 3-4 ATS in road games this week.

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Chargers vs. Raiders best odds

As Raiders backers, the only thing separating our best sportsbooks is that DraftKings charges less than the standard juice to lay the field goal. Given that five of Los Angeles' eight losses have been by three or fewer points, we would not put anyone off backing the best Las Vegas moneyline odds.

However, the Chargers' last two losses have been by 10-plus points, so we are confident in laying the points. It may be worth waiting to see if the line moves off the key number to -2.5 or lower, but this would still be a play at -3 and a pass at -3.5 or higher.

Chargers vs. Raiders odds

The point spread has increased a full point or half-point from its opening number at most of our best sports betting apps from -2 or -2.5, which is a significant move considering the spread landed on the key number.

The Chargers and Raiders have alternated covering the spread in their last five matchups, with Los Angeles covering as a 6.5-point favorite in a 24-17 home win in Week 4.

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a total of 34, while all others are slightly lower at 33.5. FanDuel has seen the biggest change in line thus far, going from an opening number of 35.5 on Sunday night to 33.5 by Monday morning. The Under has received 67% of the early wagers thus far.

This is the second straight week where the Thursday Night Football game had a total in the low 30s, as last week’s game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers finished 21-18 and went Over the 31-point total.